Weekend Open Post | August 16th – 18th
Posted on: August 16, 2024
Redshirt Predictions for the Class of ’24
– Charlie S – Posted on: August 14, 2024
Taking a look at the scholarship class for the Sooners from 2024 as they enter their first year of college ball.
As we are midway through fall camp, a community member brought up the suggestion of taking a look at how we think the redshirts will play out.
As always, this exercise is not definitive and there will be guys who miss a redshirt, but I am just providing my thoughts based on sourced information and some basic rationale.
Michael Hawkins QB – Predicting a redshirt. Hawkins is working as QB2 at this point in fall camp, and I expect him to play in four games, just not sure I see anything more than that unless Jackson Arnold goes down to injury.
Brendan Zurbrugg QB – Predicting a redshirt as he currently is 4th string QB.
Xavier Robinson RB – Predicting a redshirt. Robinson was an early enrollee and he has done a fabulous job in reshaping his body. Simple math in the running back room is dictating a likely redshirt here though.
Taylor Tatum RB – Predicting no redshirt. Tatum is the one guy on offense who I could actually see breaking not only into the rotation, but into a potential major role as the season goes along.
Ivan Carreon WR – Predicting no redshirt. Taking a bit of a flyer on this one. With the injury to Jayden Gibson and the uncertainty of how much OU will want to push Anthony and Farooq early on, I could see Carreon carving out a role (particularly in the redzone) early in the year and if he makes the most of those chances, that role could expand as the season goes on.
Kelly Daniels WR – Predicting a redshirt. Good speed, good work ethic, behind some studs. Likely see a redshirt here.
Zion Kearney WR – Predicting no redshirt. I think Kearney will work a lot on special teams and as with Carreon, he will get a chance to show out early in the year and should he capitalize on those early chances, he could find a more meaningful role outside of just special teams.
Zion Ragins WR – Predicting a redshirt. Love his speed and he may turn out to be one of the returners, but if he is not a regular returner, it makes sense to redshirt Ragins.
Davon Mitchell TE – Predicting a redshirt. Mitchell came in early and has been working on his body. He still has a ways to go and he is still supposed to be entering his senior year in high school. Feels like a redshirt is a good idea here.
Josh Aisosa OL – Predicting a redshirt. No rush here as Aisosa is a project who is on his journey.
Daniel Akinkunmi OL – Predicting a redshirt. Akinkunmi loves what he is doing, but he has been dealing with an injury and is a pretty raw prospect. A redshirt will serve him well.
Isaiah Autry OL – Predicting a redshirt. Autry has earned some nice buzz throughout his early time on campus, but he also will benefit from a redshirt.
Eugene Brooks OL – Predicting a redshirt. May get caught on this one as I really think one of he and EPL will miss the redshirt and play guard in 5 or 6 games. But with Brooks potential at center, I think he is the one who picks up the redshirt.
Eddy Pierre-Louis OL – Predicting no redshirt. As mentioned above on Brooks, I believe one of these two will miss a redshirt and I believe there will be enough snaps to get Eddy in and keep him satisfied going forward.
Wyatt Gilmore DE – Predicting a redshirt. Gilmore has actually been talked about a decent amount, but he has numbers in front of him that will allow him to keep a redshirt while seeing time in a handful of games.
Danny Okoye DE – Predicting no redshirt. I just think this kid is gonna earn some looks with his early season play. The buzz around him continues to ramp up, and I think there is gonna come a time when OU needs a spark off the edge and Okoye may be in position to provide it.
Nigel Smith DE – Predicting a redshirt. Nigel has a really high ceiling and I think you will see him early in the year and perhaps again against Maine. Just feel like he will benefit from taking the redshirt while also getting the opportunity to flash on occasion.
Jayden Jackson DT – Predicting no redshirt. Jackson has consistently received high praise since he arrived in the spring for both his work ethic and his play on the field. He is at a position without a ton of experienced depth and will get a chance to be in the rotation from the start.
David Stone DT – Predicting no redshirt. Stone is a guy who is very serious about football and he is a quick learner with outstanding physical skills. OU is going to want to give him every rep they can and I would not be shocked to see him battling the more experienced guys for snaps by the end of the year.
James Nesta LB – Predicting a redshirt. Have heard nothing about him at this point and that linebacker room is stacked.
Michael Boganowski DB – Predicting no redshirt. Sounds like Boganowski will at the very least be an important special teams guy and he will be fighting to be in the two deep at safety and cheetah. High upside guy who will follow his athleticism onto the field.
Eli Bowen DB – Predicting no redshirt. Kinda basing this on the odds of injuries in the corner room as we have seen that room decimated at certain points in each of the last two seasons. Also, Bowen has been a guy who has received a lot of praise for the way he has come in and played.
Jaydan Hardy DB – Predicting no redshirt. Hardy came in early and quickly jumped to the front of his classes line in the secondary and while things have been quiet around him a bit in the fall, I know the staff likes his football IQ and he has already earned a decent amount of trust.
Devon Jordan DB – Predicting a redshirt. This was tougher than one would expect, but I think Jordan will play in 3-4 games and be able to qualify for a redshirt.
Jeremiah Newcombe DB – Predicting a redshirt. Same thing as with Jordan, I think he will see some run, but situations should allow for him to redshirt if things stay relatively healthy. He is one that I may miss on here, but just believe OU would prefer to redshirt him.
Mykel Patterson-McDonald DB – Predicting a redshirt. Mykel has a lot of work to do and in this case, a redshirt is nothing but beneficial for him.
Reggie Powers DB – Predicting no redshirt. This one is tough, but I think his athleticism and energy will keep him on special teams at the very least and he likely will get plenty of snaps in the out of conference schedule at safety as well. Feel like he will miss the redshirt.
Those are my thoughts, interested to read what the community thinks!
Sourced Scrimmage and Team Notes | Up The Middle
– Charlie S – Posted on: August 10, 2024
Wanted to pass along a few extra notes I picked up following yesterday’s first scrimmage of the fall for team 130.
As you know, it sounds like the defense dominated the action yesterday. While that is not surprising, I think it is fair to say there are some massive positives to take away from the performance of the defense yesterday.
***Source said “The middle was closed for business”. I asked them to give me a little more there in regard to what they meant and they said “At each level, the middle was firing”.
***As I reported yesterday, the IDL got some praise, in particular Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton, and Ashton Sanders, but that’s not it, source said “Didn’t matter who was in there on the line, the level was different than it’s been”.
***Source said “They look like a different group down there” in regard to the IDL. Again, one scrimmage and the defense held the advantage of familiarity, but still, that’s a positive for you all to focus on.
***Then we spoke a bit about the linebackers and source said “Having Danny and Billy (Bowman at safety) out there isn’t fair”. They added “Those guys going against this offense day in and day out is a cheat code for these things (scrimmages).”
***Stutsman had his pick on the first series and he turned it into 6 points. Source said “Danny is just so smart. He is playing so fast and so confident. All those hours in the film room are paying off. Kid is having so much fun”.
***Back to the linebackers specifically. Sounds like the early returns on Zac Alley are very positive. Source pointed toward Lewis Carter and Kip Lewis as guys who were playing very free and very fast. Source said Carter in particular appears to have made a big jump in comprehending the defensive assignments, that can be easily attributed to Alley’s impact I would think.
***As for the middle and the last line of defense, the safety room, source said “If this is anything to go on, those cats are gonna do a lot of damage this year”.
***Source said the thing that stood out to them about Bowman was his anticipation of what was coming before the offense was even set in regard to lining up. Sounds like Billy continues to excel at the mental part of the game and when you couple that with his physical skills…well, you’re cooking with bacon grease.
***Lastly, source said Peyton Bowen “just changes things” when he is on the field with Bowman. Was told the most impressive play of the scrimmage in this person’s eyes came on a broken play that resulted in a PBU for Bowen against Bauer Sharp. Source said Bowen was coming off the edge when the QB scrambled away due to interior pressure and Bowen planted his foot and pivoted to pick up Sharp who was leaking out the back door (basically doing a 180) and was able to make up the ground to break up the pass.
***Again, just one scrimmage and there is a long way to go in regard to making a statement in the SEC, but to this point, it sounds like the Sooners have a very good spine to work with defensively. Not only do they have very good frontline players, but they have pretty nice depth at each level. Early indications are that OU has difference makes at every level of the middle of the defense.
***If you would like to read the other four batches of sourced notes that we posted in the last week which covered both scrimmages, please check the TFB Donor Board.
My Take on the Team
– Super K – Posted on: August 13, 2024
There’s been a bit of hang wringing about some of the sourced behind the scenes take on the team.
This is essentially what I believe things look like…
***First, I think the defense is in fact pretty darn good. For those concerned about the CB spot with Gentry being dinged up, I obviously haven’t watched practice but I’m told the Sooners like they’re depth everyone in the back seven, including CB.
***I think it’s clear the biggest concern is on the offense. No surprise there. Again, I think part of the issue is indeed the defense.
***The other two issues that have been brought up are the offensive line and the quarterback.
***First, I mentioned in previous notes that I had already been told by a source that they expect the offensive line to come together at some point around game three.
***We’ve seen that before and it’s pretty common for OLs. You’ve seen that around the country, including Nick Saban’s offensive lines (Texas ate against them early on). We just aren’t in an era where there are a bunch of fifth year guys who have played together for a while. Talented OL are leaving after three years. So every year it’s a rebuild no matter where you are.
***Additionally, Arnold is young and there are a lot of pieces coming together right now. What I’m gathering is that sometimes it all looks great but other times when things aren’t so great, young guys have to learn to mitigate their losses.
***Folks have to remember, again, that Arnold hasn’t played a ton and now he’s playing against a very good defense behind an OL that has talent but is working on gelling and he’s doing so against against a defense that knows what the offense is doing. This is why Charlie was banging the table for Lebby to give Arnold a lot more snaps last year.
***I do want to warn you now, don’t expect the next scrimmage to be glowing. If it is, great. But it’s ok if they’re getting whipped right now by their own defense. They’re a work in progress and OU has a few early games to work those kinks out. But beyond that, this is year three of Brent’s defense. It better be darn good. Like top 10 good.
What Should we Expect?
– Super K – Posted on: August 15, 2024
Earlier this week, Charlie and I had a long conversation about what we should expect from this OU team, especially at the fringes. In other words, what kind of upside does the team have and what is an acceptable downside for Brent and co.
Wanted to pass along a few thoughts from our conversation.
***First, in terms of upside, there is a lot of talent on this team. Given the new schedule and not simply the strength of the schedule, it’s unlikely that, no matter the talent, OU was going to go undefeated. But a 10-2 season is theoretically possible and would result in a playoff berth. That would be a fantastic start.
***One thing I did remind Charlie of is some conversations we’ve had with sources on the OU side who have been a little more hesitant to predict where they are just given the uncertainties about the new opponents. As in, you know you’re good but you don’t yet have a clear frame of reference for how good your opponent is. And there will be a transition for this team. They’re going from out-talenting almost every opponent they play to now being a lot closer including in the trenches.
***Additionally, OU is dealing with a bit of unknown in Arnold because he is essentially a freshman. The hope is it will come together for him early and quickly but most QBs need at least a year to reach the kind of calmness and maturity to handle the position. And I think there is little doubt, he’s going to be doing it under more pressure. Even if the OL is good, the DLs facing OU every week are going to be much much better than they’re accustomed to.
***I think a part of us feels like, you’d expect a very limited downside given the amount of talent the team has. I mean, it isn’t going to improve much from year to year at, say, LB or DB. They already have draft picks there. There is certainly some future improvement possible at other positions but something like a six win season I think would call some things into question.
***Something more like seven or eight given the new schedule, the young QB, the turnover at OL, and the possible future improvement at a few spots, I think would be an acceptable floor.
***Charlie did note (and I agree), that no matter what happens, the defense needs to be good. We know they can improve their depth and overall talent on the interior DL. They have some young guys on campus and Bates has a great 2025 class. But at every level, there is enough talent at this point in Brent’s career as an HC at OU to field a very good defense. And, the discussion about the floor likely changes if he’s fielding a good defense. Seven or eight wins with a killer defense and an offense that’s finding its footing late in the season under a young but growing QB feels a lot different than the erratic, unpredictable, “why is there always a leak somewhere” type of losses that OU has had the past couple seasons.
