The Football Brainiacs

Image via Associated Press

I spent some time reviewing film from the Texas vs. TCU game this week. The final score was a lopsided, 50-7 with Texas not scoring a TD until the 4th quarter (though they missed field goals earlier). Prior to that, Texas played undefeated Oklahoma State and Cal very close. They were a couple special teams blunders away from sending those games into overtime. They won their game over Rice and were blown out in their first game of the season by a fully functioning Notre Dame team that has since then suffered some critical injuries. Jerrod Heard took over as the starting quarterback after the Notre Dame game and Jay Norvell took over play calling duties.

What’s Wrong with Texas?

There are a number of things one could point to but probably the thing that stands out the most is their inability to be clean from down to down and series to series on both sides of the ball and in special teams. They show flashes at a times but can’t string those good moments together for a long enough period of time.

Last week they had a horrible 1st quarter against TCU…busts on defense, mishaps on special teams, and poor play calling and an out of synch offense. All that led to a 1st quarter score of 30-0.

Versus the Texas Offense

– Heard is limited in his ability to sit in the pocket and read defenses or make pre-snap checks so the offense is really predicated on running the ball and going deep.

– Heard is relatively accurate with the deep ball. He’s close a lot but isn’t getting enough completions to really hurt opposing teams. His legs however give him a lot of one on one matchups on the outside to look at. If I’m the Sooners I’m going to alter my outside coverage techniques based on the receiver. With some of their veteran guys I’m going to give them space and force Heard to make those short throws up on long sustained drives. With the younger guys, I’m going to try to disrupt them at the line.

– Texas runs the ball well at times. Their offensive line isn’t always clean but they’re more physical than people give them credit for. In the 2nd quarter of the TCU game they ran against a stacked box and held the ball for most of the quarter. They had over 100 yards on the ground in the first quarter. The priority is to stop the run…

– To me, Heard is more dangerous as an improvisational runner when plays breakdown than he is on designed runs. The key, in my opinion, is for Oklahoma to load the box or play zone. If you’re out-numbered in the box they can run with their running backs or drop back in a pass and Heard will find space to run. TCU had a lot of success playing their safeties low around the box and disguising their looks ending up in ultimately Cover-0. Heard tends to drop his eyes once he doesn’t see what he likes.

– To the point regarding disguise, it’s critical that OU show Texas one pre-snap look and then change it. Heard doesn’t check out of plays.

– On passing days the interior of Texas offensive line has trouble with inside stunts or delayed pressure. TCU was able to sack Heard or flush him out of the pocket and get him running side to side by doing just that.

– Spying the quarterback was also something TCU successfully executed. They slanted and stunted their defensive line. Their defenders did a good job of forcing Heard to bounce the ball and TCU’s speedy LBs were able to spy him and bring him down.

– Bottom Line: Make Heard pass. If you’re in man coverage keep the safeties involved with a Cover-1 low or Cover-0. Otherwise, stick with zone coverages so that there are plenty of eyes on the quarterback to stop the run and you force Heard to wait on stuff and throw accurately between defenders. So far he hasn’t proven he can do that consistently.

Versus the Texas Defense

– Texas can play multiple fronts but against spread formations they like to play their 3-3-5. They are going to blitz from different angles.

– Their defensive line is better than many think. They aren’t always consistent but when they want to be they can be disruptive against the run. OU has struggled running the ball so this will be a match-up to watch.

– They don’t have an elite pass rusher so again, they employ a lot of blitzes in order to get pressure on the quarterback.

– They’ve tried a lot of different cover guys at various spots. To me their best combination is CB Duke Thomas on the outside and Holton Hill or Antwuan Davis on the opposite side with John Bonney at Nickel. Their zone coverage is very hit and miss. Last week even some of the older guys busted in zone coverage. They held up much better in man coverage but there are some weakness…

1. Thomas is a good cover guy but very susceptible to a double move.
2. Bonney’s overall athleticism is good but not great. I could see him struggling with some of Oklahoma’s quick inside guys.
3. Holton Hill is young. I will say that for a young guy he played Josh Doctson surprisingly close. He struggled with some of the same things PJ struggled with in his first game which was the ability to play the ball in the air.

– Perhaps the most noticeable weakness was Texas ability to match-up against five WR sets. Instead of going to a dime package or going cover 0 (which is what Oklahoma tends to do) they’d put a linebacker on an inside receiver in man coverage. That did not work at well for them. I expect to see Mixon flexed out early so that Oklahoma can figure out how they made adjust to those looks.

– A lot of TCU’s ability to move the ball on Texas came from personnel mismatches or busted assignments in zone coverage. When it was true DBs man to man on TCU’s WRs the Texas secondary held up well. But TCU is missing quite a few of their WR targets and once Texas put Duke Thomas on Josh Doctson and he was able to quiet him significantly, outside of the WRs working on linebackers, the TCU receivers couldn’t get a ton of separation. OU has a number of targets though across the board that are healthy and it should make for a fun match-up.

– Bottom Line: Oklahoma just needs to limit taking too many unnecessary chances. Oklahoma State almost lost the game to Texas, in part, because they tried to force things and Texas defense is an attacking style defense like WVU’s and they were able to get some turnovers.

Keys to the Game

– Play clean. Again, any risk is this game is unnecessary. Oklahoma is the more veteran team and if all things are equal Oklahoma should come out on top. But this is a rivalry game where momentum can really be a factor. A turnover here or there or giving up a big play here or there and you could be in a dog fight. Play clean, take what’s there and Oklahoma should be fine.  If Oklahoma can win big that’s all good and well for the Sooners, but the most important thing for Oklahoma is to get the win.

– Keep your zone calls on defense simple. Last year Oklahoma tried to do too much on defense at times and gave up some easy stuff due to busted assignments. That isn’t necessary.

– Force them to take long drives. Texas has been prone to mistakes on both sides of the ball (and certainly special teams). Everyone wants to get a 3 and out but there is a line of risk you don’t want to cross in my estimation. If you make them put together long drives they’re likely to make a mistake. Last week even when they managed to get into field goal territory against TCU their kicker couldn’t connect.

– Maintain numbers in the run game. Conservatively out-number them on first down. Their offensive line isn’t comfortable pass protecting and Heard is still shaky in the pass game. You want to commit to stopping the run on early downs and force them into pass situations. But do so conservatively through zone calls or loosely played cover 0 calls so as not to give up any unnecessary chunk yards. Because of Heard’s ability to scramble you’ve got to stay even in the box even on passing downs unless you’ve got a safety robber. Also, it’s important for OU to anchor down in the middle. Last week the interior part of Oklahoma’s defensive line got cleared out quite a bit by WVU. If need be, reinforce the interior part of the line.

– Stay Locked In. They’ve played a good schedule up to this point. Texas has shot themselves in the foot a lot this season but don’t buy into the idea that they are completely bereft of talent. They certainly aren’t what they used to be and they have a lot of weaknesses but they’ve got some players and this game means a lot to both sides. The Oklahoma players need to be locked in. If Oklahoma takes the commanding lead that most expect then they can relax. But they need to be mentally prepared for a battle in case it comes to that. Although this year Oklahoma has significantly upgraded at the quarterback position, the past couple years have been closely contested.