The Football Brainiacs

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About the Contributor: Seth McKinzie played quarterback at Missouri Southern State University before transferring and playing at Northeastern State University. McKinzie was a scholarship player at both schools. He completed a BA in Journalism at NSU and later received a MSE from Arkansas State. After college, he was a member of a 4A high school football staff in Arkansas and later coached 5A ball in Texas. McKinzie currently resides in Arkansas with his wife and two children.

GAME #3 vs. Ohio State – Norman, Oklahoma – September 17

22nd (rushing/127 ypg), 16th (passing/184 ypg), 2nd (scoring/15.1 ppg), 9th (total/311 ypg). Those are the rankings in major statistical defensive categories for the 2015 Ohio State Buckeyes. The good news for OU is Ohio State also lost a boatload of talent to the NFL Draft and return just three starters on defense. On the flip side, the bad news for OU is that Ohio State, and Coach Urban Meyer, have been absolutely raking in top-level talent on National Signing Day and many are predicting a small, if any at all, drop off in defensive production even in spite of all those losses to the draft.

Offensively, the Buckeyes also bring back only three returning starters from last year, but one of those is quarterback and potential Heisman candidate, J.T. Barrett. Who amassed almost 1700 total yards in 2015 to go along with 22 total touchdowns. Add to that Barrett enters this 2016 season not having to look over his shoulder for Cardale Jones and will be the second electric dual-threat quarterback the Sooners face (Houston’s Gred Ward Jr. being the other, of course) in their first three games. Throw in elite, albeit young, talent all around him and this looks like the type of game that will leave OU fans minus several inches of fingernail by the time the game clock reads 0:00. 

NATIONAL HYPE

I am predicting OU will be 2-0, with a quality win over Houston. Ohio State should also be 2-0 coming off a tune-up game against Bowling Green as well as a match up with Tulsa, the latter of which may prove to be more of a contest but expecting an upset at this point seems a tad far-fetched. Both OU and tOSU could easily be ranked in the Top 5, if not higher. The history and tradition of each respective program will provide more than enough story lines throughout the week, while each fanbase will equally do their part to build up the game between two of the best in the country.

Networks will declare it a “playoff match up in September” and the winner as being in the catbird seat for the CFB playoff. There will not be an empty seat in the newly renovated Memorial Stadium when the teams rush onto the field and the television announcers will have to scream to be heard.

WHY OKLAHOMA WILL WIN

While the narrative tends to center around the talent Urban Meyer has brought to campus, it’s not exactly as though Bob Stoops is slacking in that department either. That said, coming off that Orange Bowl game against Clemson, OU fans have some legitimate concerns as to how their respective fronts hold up against some of the country’s other elite programs.

Will Orlando Brown, Dru Samia, & co. be able to consistently open up enough space for OU’s ridiculously loaded backfield to make plays on the ground? Those opportunities figure be there, especially early, and in what should be one of the rowdiest environments at an OU home game in several years this could easily prove to be the key to the game. Can OU establish the ground game early? If the answer is yes, OU fans will likely love the outcome.

Will Baker Mayfield be able to create plays out of nothing like he did in 2015 and find open receivers down the field? And who will those receivers be? Lincoln Riley’s system by design creates space for itself and those guys on the outside, while taking away opportunities for tighter coverage. Will Mark Andrews create match up nightmares for whomever has the misfortune of lining up over him? I expect this game will be when he earns that national recognition, if that’s any indication as to which way I’m leaning.

The Sooner defense needs to be in-sync by what will be their third game of the season. Having a stout, early test in the opener against Houston and an entire offseason knowing that game is ahead of them favors the odds of them being ‘in-sync’ come Ohio State. But there is no doubt Barrett will present a considerable threat along with the stable of talented athletes he’ll be bringing with him.

If the offense plays the way I believe they’re capable of playing and the OU defense can at least somewhat limit Barrett’s ability to make plays outside the pocket, we have every reason to believe the Sooners can protect their home field.

WHY OHIO STATE WILL WIN

Ohio State is loaded, and I do mean loaded, with talent. Defensively they return one of the best linebackers in the country in Raekwon McMillan. The 6’2″ 240-pound destroyer will be looking to bring the pain to Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon, Baker Mayfield, and/or any receiver who dares enter his bubble. The Buckeyes are going to be fast at linebacker and it will show early, just in terms of chasing down receivers and ball-carriers. Along the defensive front, the Buckeyes return Tyquan Lewis who led the team in sacks last year. When you recall the 2015 version of Ohio State had a guy named Joey Bosa, Lewis’ sack feat is all the more worrisome.

Needless to say OU’s offensive lin, who will be working in at least a couple new starters, will have their hands full early and often with stunts, twists, and the like, from highly talented defenders in a proven scheme. The last time OU faced a defensive front seven with as much talent and ability, although more experienced, was against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. And OU fans remember all too well where that game was decided.

While Ohio State’s secondary will be green, returning only one starter, they will have had a good opponent in Tulsa to prepare for the OU passing attack. The Golden Hurricanes will sling it all over the field, and use some of the same pass patterns and combinations as the Sooners employ. So the Buckeyes will have essentially an extra scout team week of looking at a lot of the same type of offensive schemes being thrown their way. 

Offensively, the Buckeyes only have two starters returning across the line though they will fill in the missing pieces with other talented giants, who will be looking to create a new line of scrimmage each and every play against an OU defensive line. An OU defensive line that many are expecting big things from in 2016. If there is consistent backward movement, or stabilization of OU’s defensive front, it figures be a long day for the Sooners. As Ohio State quite simply will have too much overall talent to not take advantage of gaping holes, time to throw, etc.

Thus, much like the Clemson game, if tOSU is able to control the line of scrimmage they could come into Norman and pull the upset.

WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN

When Oklahoma Has the Ball:

Honestly, OU has the potential to be an offense that cannot be stopped. Slowed down? Sure, probably, at times. But truly stopped? I don’t think so. This is an OU offense that faced top level talent last season on several occasions, which taught them all a little about themselves as players. There will be something to prove in Norman on this night and there will be chunks of rushing yardage gained to go along with plenty of “ohs and ahs” in the passing attack.

Oklahoma will score points. It probably will not be in bunches, but score they will.

When Ohio State Has the Ball:

Barrett is going to get his yards. He is too good an athlete to not make something out of nothing at least a couple times and has a ton of experience in big games. His skill set is the kind that historically gives Mike Stoops defenses fits. Barrett will have his moments, but I expect OU will be able to prevent him from ‘breaking the big one.’ And Ohio State’s “green” running backs should be welcomed to Norman with hard hits and sure tackles.

The noise also figures to be a factor for the tOSU offense, so I’d expect to see a lot of non-verbal signing going on among the offensive line and skill players. While this is quite normal in college football these days, it can often lead to miscommunications, wrong routes, running backs pass blocking on the wrong side of the line, etc. Noise will be a huge factor, and this cannot be stressed enough.

Expect to find out what the OU front seven is made of in this game. It will either leave you saying “They’re still not quite there” or “THIS is an Oklahoma defense”. Get ready.

SCORE PREDICTION

It will be a phenomenal first half, with both teams trading blows and flying all over the field. OU will have enough momentum being at home to pull away in the second half and expose some holes in an inexperienced Buckeye defense.

Oklahoma 24 – Ohio State 20

WHAT THIS GAME WILL TEACH US ABOUT THE 2016 SOONERS

OU is for real. Plain and simple.