Golden Nugget Releases Their Early CFB Betting Lines

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I have to confess, this is one of my favorites days of the offseason. If we’re going to be deprived of our Sooners for the entire summer, then I’ll take any excuse I can find to talk and/or write about college football. And one of said excuses annually is the day the Golden Nugget releases their (ridiculously) early CFB betting lines. And I call them ridiculous because setting a line, let alone nearly 200 games as the Golden Nugget will do this year, this early can only be referred to as such. But it’s still something fun to discuss in the doldrums of what is the CFB offseason.

So without further adieu, here are a sample of what was released. I’ll give you all of the OU games/lines — in which they are a favorite across the board, though that’s not really a surprise — and after some of the more interesting/relevant other Big 12 games/lines.

OU (-19) vs. Tennessee – Prior to these actually being released, I saw a projection that had this as high as OU (-26). That would have been way too high in my opinion, and while 19 is still a pretty big number against an SEC team it’s at least more reasonable that nearly four touchdowns would have been. I’d also expect this number to come down, perhaps considerably, as I’ve read more than my share of crazy Vols fans who not only think they’ll at least keep it close in Norman, but many who believe they’re leaving with a victory. I called them ‘crazy’ for a reason.

OU (-17) @ West Virginia – Maybe it’s just because of the last trip to Morgantown, but that feels a little high. I know WVU isn’t supposed to be world-beaters this year, but I just have a feeling that road trip could be a tricky one.

OU (-14) @ TCU – Again, maybe a little bit high for what I’m expecting to be a hard fought game down in Fort Worth.

OU (-9) vs. Texas – Rarely would a double digit line (or something approaching that as it does here) make sense to me when it comes to this game. Obviously, the final margin routinely eclipses that mark but to predict that kind of win/loss always makes me nervous. It’s just such a difficult game to project every year. I mean who the hell saw that coming last year? I know I didn’t.

OU (-14) vs. K-State – If the Purple Wizard’s squad lives up to expectations, then I could see this number settling somewhere closer to 10 (or possibly even lower) by game day.

OU (-22.5) @ Iowa State – That’s a reasonably big number for a road game, even if that road game is in Ames. Still, unless something goes horribly wrong you’d have to think (or at least hope) OU can cover that.

OU (-11) vs. Baylor – If you can be surprised by a betting line put out this early, then this line surprised me. It seems pretty high, even considering the game is in Norman, when both OU and the Bears are considered to be the two clear conference favorites. Which is in no way to say Oklahoma is incapable of covering that number, but if you’re asking me to put money down today (you know, if gambling were legal and all) I’m not entirely sure I’d feel comfortable doing so at that number.

OU (-10) @ Texas Tech – The game is being played in Lubbock. Strange things happen in Lubbock. That is all.

OU (-11) vs. Ok. State – Put a zero on the end of that number and it still wouldn’t equal what I want to beat OSU by every year.

Other Big 12 lines:

Ok. State (+17) vs. Florida State – This isn’t much of a surprise as their has been a line out on this game at online sports books for some time. Still, it’s interesting to see just how little faith Vegas appears to have in the Pokes versus the defending national champs.

Texas (+8) vs. UCLA – The Horns nearly a double digit dog in their home state (game is in JerryWorld)? Ouch, bro.

K-State (+13) vs. Auburn – A little surprised this number isn’t larger. Not saying it should be necessarily, just thought Vegas might have it there.

Texas Tech (-1) vs. Texas – Man, if you’re one of those people that think the Horns are going to have a big year there is a lot of money for you on this board. Vegas is clearly not buying Texas stock this year if these early lines are any indicator.

Baylor (-9) vs. Ok. State – Seems low based on some of the other lines for these respective teams.


So there you have it. Anything in particular stand out to you? Lines that are too high or maybe too low? Have at it in the comments below!

  • j l

    Just an FYI, UCLA-UT isnt in austin, its in dallas.
    Shocked we have a smaller spread vs texas than we do vs baylor. crazy. WVU and TCU spreads are both 2-3 points too high IMO.

    • Jordan Esco

      You’re right, my bad on that one.

      • j l

        You guys do enough awesome work, this one can slide =)

  • EasTex

    78 days.

  • Eric Hoffpauir

    I’m with Vegas on the OSU/FSU game. OSU lost a lot and FSU returns key people and has been recruiting extremely well for the last few years.

    • Zack

      Especially out of the gates osu is not going to be very good. They might have some interesting games late but not to start the season.

    • JB

      All of the above, and Mike Gundy vs Jimbo Fisher? That’s not even fair. It may not be as big a mismatch as Stoops vs Gundy, but it’s a decided disadvantage for oSu. Expect that game to be ugly.

      • Fisher hadn’t done squat leading up to last year and the ACC isn’t anywhere near the competition of the big XII. I don’t see the coaching mismatch. He road on the back of one very special player last year.

    • I think the fsu/osu spread is definitely too high. I can’t recall the last time a Gundy team got blown out and lost by that much too anybody, anywhere much less got dominated by anybody can you? I think those days are over. Osu will give them all they can handle and they’re much more balanced than Auburn……by far. People keep wanting to deny the fact that osu just reloads every year now but they do. Perception does not match reality here with this spread I’m afraid. Fsu better come ready to play because they won’t have any tape to study of this new osu team and they won’t have any idea who they need to account for on the field.

      • Gary Robbins

        In 2012 OSU lost to Arizona by a score of 59 to 38.

        • I think that was the season where they were rebuilding (like this year). They put up 636 yards of offense on Arizona which is enormous. They also melted down and couldn’t get out of their own way with with a school record 15 penalties for 167 yards. It will be interesting to see if they have any composure against FSU. I must be the only person who wasn’t very impressed with that FSU team last year.

  • Sooner Ray

    Looks like they are trying to start the money out right then adjust their spreads later.

    • J J

      Crazy to be double digits in all but 1

  • Don Mitchell

    Deep roots in Vegas…old friend owns several casinos…anyways if u knew the amount of research that goes into this you would be amazed. ..reminds me of the NBA
    taking OU every game probably only the second time I ever bet on OU in my life and I’m in my fifties and like sports books .

    Scout things OU has lost its grip on Wariboko.. anyone read that …not asking for the whole story as it’s premium info just a short analysis still think get we get him back and I think a few more commits are coming at the end of th3 month…


    • Ed Cotter

      Love my Sooners, just don’t like betting on them. Seems like when I do, I get my heart broken. Lots of high point spreads to cover according to the GN. Not what I like to see.

      • Don Mitchell

        you must know my brother, save for last year he has lost on OU on quite a few bets probably an equivalent of a nice boat…back in the day Swiitzers Sooners were the hottest winning teams period, err beating wise and we did well.
        Last years sugar bowl was the first time her ever banked on OU so I know what you are saying…..


  • Super Keith

    I’m not one of the fans that expects to blow out Tennessee. I think 19 points is way too high (10 would be the max). I do not expect Tennessee to come in and beat the Sooners in Norman, but there is enough talent on that team to keep it interesting. The 2015 game could end up being really good, but that’s putting the cart before the horse.

    • Don Mitchell

      You think Tennessee can come to Norman and stay within 10
      Honestly. .If things work out for OU…tightend..rb…o line and d line this could be a powerhouse of a defense and a smoking offense.
      I’ve got OU by 21 …of course we have to wait for the season to start..
      people forget not only is OU loaded…to a degree..but they have a really solid class coming in as well

    • Ed Cotter

      Just want to see a win, but a blow out by OU would be nice, especially in front of all the recruits that will be on hand. As the game gets closer we need to see if people on here can hook up for some tailgating due to the late start to the game.

      • lovethemsooners

        You know I’ll be there brother!

  • Dana Rogers

    A little gambling problem there, JE? 😉

    • Jordan Esco

      you’d think, but not really. I work with numbers so this type of stuff has always interested me.

      • Dana Rogers

        Then the OU V UT prediction had to have risen your eyebrow… Personally; I’m good w/ a -1, the win, and getting the heck out of town. As to last year – same canoe as you…

    • paganpink

      Not a problem unless you’re losing! Boy, could Switzer cover a spread-any spread- or what? Made a lot of people a lot of money every week regardless of how Vegas set the spreads.

      • Dana Rogers

        We’d need a good numbers guy to verify how often but, I seem to recall same same. “Any spread” – my goodness; weren’t they even taking some games off the line? Back in the day; paganpink – we need to change conversation… our ages are showing. ha

  • All Texas needs is a QB. Everything else is in place. If they find one that is halfway decent, that changes their entire dynamic. I’m just sayin………….

    • J J

      Texas is further away than that, the fact they had no one drafted at all speaks loud enough