The Football Brainiacs

Image via TulsaWorld.com (Mike Simons)

–    OU and OSU are statistically very close in several categories: Total Defense, Sacks, and Yards per Completion. The yards per completion stat should frighten Sooner fans as Mason Rudolph is the best pure throwing quarterback OU has faced (yes, I think he’s better than Mahomes).

–    OU is in the top five nationally for Total Offense and Scoring Offense. OSU is top twenty for both. Will this be the game OU’s defense shows up and puts the lid on a high powered offense? I don’t think I’ll fall for that again.

–    In last week’s Hot Takes I declared no Big 12 team is better than OU. I still stand by that.

–    A stat to watch: OSU has scored 38 touchdowns in 60 red zone attempts. OU’s red zone defense is 23rd nationally and has allowed 33 touchdowns in 48 opponent attempts.

–    Neither team gets to the quarterback that often, at least in terms of sacks. Last year, OU was able to put a ton of pressure on OSU in Stillwater. This year, however, fans have had to face the reality of a defense that just does not consistently put pressure on the opposing QB. If Rudolph has all day to go through is progressions, set his feet, and throw…it could be a night of Texas Tech proportions.

–    OU should be able to generate some yards on the ground, not only because of the obvious, but OSU has struggled at times to stuff the run. The Cowboys rank 81st nationally in Rush Defense. Texas rolled up 329 rushing yards and Kansas State had a whopping 345.

–    Will “First Half Morgantown” OU show up? If so, I expect this to be a fun game for Sooner fans.

–    Will “Second Half Morgantown” OU show up? If so, I expect this to be a fun game for Cowboy fans. I don’t, however, anticipate this happening.

–    The weather forecast for Saturday favors OU’s offense more than OSU’s. Why? The Sooners have an offense that can “ground and pound” should it be wet and cold (see: First Half Morgantown OU). The Sooners average just under 230 rushing yards per game and this would be a reason to lean heavily on that attack.

–    If the weather is nasty, will Lincoln Riley trust putting the ball in the air a bit more than he did against West Virginia in the snow? You have to let your players make plays. OU has too many weapons to do otherwise. Of course, with the early drops in the passing game at WVU, Riley might have just said “We’re running the rock.”

–    The way OU has played in the secondary for much of the year has OSU champing at the bit. OU’s defense allows third down conversions at a rate of 45%. OSU converts third downs at virtually the same percentage. I think OU will see a lot of back shoulder throws and swing passes to Justice Hill. If the corners are going to play 8-12 yards off on third down, and if I were calling plays for OSU, I’m banking on Hill to be better in space than OU’s linebackers.

–    It will be interesting to see what the plan is should Jordan Evans not be able to go 100%. His absence cost OU dearly in Morgantown.

–    Thinking about options should Evans not be “full go”, Brandon and I had a discussion last weekend about it. Brandon astutely mentioned Curtis Bolton and Ricky DeBerry would likely get work at inside linebacker during the two weeks since the last football game.

–    Per ESPN, DeDe Westbrook is the new top player in the country.

–    Dear Coach Riley – Use the new top player in the country. Signed – OU Fans Everywhere

–    Rudolph has a ton of completions for more than 30 yards. OU’s secondary has shown this could be a serious nightmare scenario. One thing I think could play into OU’s favor is, with how bad the Sooners have been in downfield coverage, Rudolph could take some chances and just heave the ball downfield, confident his guys will run under it or adjust. I can not help but think about the two “50/50 Balls” Rudolph threw up on the first Cowboy drive against TCU. If he makes a habit of it Saturday, surely…SURELY, OU can make him pay.

–    Anyone think James Washington and Jhajuan Seales have been watching film and salivating?

–    The best player on the field will be Joe Mixon. He is so good at everything he does.

–    Will this be the last game Mixon and Samaje Perine play in Norman?

–    Will this be Baker Mayfield’s last game in Norman?

–    Will this be Lincoln Riley’s last game in Norman?

–    O/U Total Points: 72

–    O/U Mason Rudolph Passing Yards: 375

–    O/U Justice Hill Rushing Yards: 110

–    O/U Mixon and Perine Combined Rushing Yards: 225

–    O/U OSU Completions of More than 30 Yards: 5

MCKINZIE’S SCORE PREDICTION: Oklahoma 48 Oklahoma State 38 (Obviously, I’m taking the over on total points)