The Football Brainiacs

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You may or may not recall this post from about one month ago and initial round of early CFB betting lines that were released by the Golden Nugget. Well, another prominent Vegas bookmaker, the Hilton’s SuperBook, has also released a slate of games (and over/under win totals). And while there have obviously been zero snaps taken between the release of either of these, it is interesting to note the differences between the two and how opinion on OU in Vegas appears to vary.

First, the Hilton did not release as many OU games — or as many games in general — as the Golden Nugget did. So this won’t necessarily be an apples-to-apples comparison, but nonetheless there are still some items of note.

OU @ TCU: GN (-14), LVH (-6) – Eight point difference here, which is pretty significant. The Nugget line always seemed high both because of OU’s recent history of close games with the Horned Frogs and the talent TCU is returning on the defensive side of the ball. The Hilton’s line seems much more in line with where this should be, in my opinion, at least before a single down has been played.

OU vs. Baylor: GN (-11), LVH (-4.5) – Again, another big drop and one that’s probably well justified. If the Sooners and Bears are considered to be the co-favorites in the Big 12, as many believe them to be, then that initial eleven point spread seemed pretty ridiculous.

OU @ TTU: GN (-10), LVH (-10.5) – Half a point isn’t much to write home about, but I’d expect this line is far from being set. The shine could come off Kingsbury’s squad quickly this year, or they could prove to be worthy of all the hype. Either way this line is likely to move fairly significantly one direction or another by the time they kick this one off in mid-November.

OU vs. OSU: GN (-11), LVH (-15.5) – Um, wow. I think it’s safe to say whoever the person/s at the Hilton responsible for setting this number is not buying Okie State stock for the coming season. Two touchdown plus favorite in a rivalry game is pretty crazy. Which is not to say OU is incapable of winning and/or covering that number, far from it. But to set it that high this early came as a bit of a surprise.

Was a little disappointed the Hilton did not include the Texas game, but not entirely surprised. I’d like to think most of us know at least as much (if not more) about those two respective teams and the game itself, and I know I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting a line on that game in the middle of July. The Nugget opened it at OU (-9), so I just would have been curious to see where Hilton had it now a month later.

So I wouldn’t necessarily say those first two lines coming down as much as they did reflects a lesser confidence in the Sooners on the part of Las Vegas. I think it’s more a product of the earlier lines being a little out of whack and these more recent coming in closer to where they probably should be.