Sooners Heading Into Tough Three-Game Stretch
Posted on: September 30, 2014
Image via NewsOK
Depending on where you stand on things, we may or may not be able to agree that appears to be Baylor is the toughest game remaining on OU’s schedule. However, what isn’t really up for debate is the fact these next three games look to be the most difficult stretch the Sooners will or have faced to date.
At TCU, in Dallas versus our hated rivals in Texas, and a home contest against a Top 25 Kansas State team. We’re about to learn a lot more about this Oklahoma team.
Can they make it out of this three-game stretch unscathed? If they are the CFB playoff and national championship contender many of us believe them to be, then they’ll have to win all three games. And each game/opponent presents some unique challenges for this OU team.
TCU: Offensively, this team will look nothing like what we’ve seen in years past. The Horned Frogs are now running a wide-open spread system similar to what Texas A&M runs under Kevin Sumlin. In Trevone Boykin, they have a mobile threat at the quarterback position more than capable of making plays outside the pocket. And unlike Oklahoma, they’re not afraid to us him in the run game (he leads the team in rushing by a slim margin over RB B.J. Catalon). Both of which are things OU defenses have struggled to defend against in the past.
Defensively, it’s your typical Gary Patterson team…stout and talented. They have the personnel both up front and in the back end to load the box — like we’ve seen teams do in virtually every game thus far — and man up with OU’s receivers. Someone other than Sterling Shepard is almost assuredly going to have to play a significant role for the OU offense in this game.
I don’t want to go too much more in-depth as it will steal from my ‘What I’ll Be Watching’ weekly post that will run on Thursday, but know I am confident in OU’s chances of winning this weekend. However, at the same time, I do believe there are reasons for concern as well. This is a TCU team with some legit talent that can give OU problems.
Texas: It’s a rivalry game, ‘nuf said. Did any of you expect OU to lose to a Case McCoy led Longhorn squad last year? Yeah, neither did I. And I’ve been harping on this here and some on Twitter, but I think OU is going to have a serious problem getting yards on the ground up the middle against Texas’ stud DT Malcom Brown. Which is something, the propensity for running up the middle, Josh Heupel has shown to be quite fond of, in my opinion, during his time as a play-caller, at times (again, in my opinion) regardless of whether or not it’s effective.
It would be just like this game for Tyrone Swoopes to be unstoppable and/or OU to have a mind-numbingly stupid game plan (like last year) and for this game to be either (1) much, much closer than it should be or (2) possibly even in jeopardy. Even in spite of their struggles, Texas has talent and has also shown some promise.
But with as bad as they are up front offensively, this is a game OU should dominate. Of course I thought that (the dominate part, not Texas’ o-line) last year and we all know what happened. I’ve come to learn (the hard way), you just don’t take anything for granted when it comes to this game.
Kansas State: Tyler Lockett is reason enough alone to be worried about this game. But you also have the dual threat abilities Jake Waters presents and a Ryan Mueller led defense. Plus…you know…Snyder. You don’t need me to remind you they came into Norman two years ago and pulled the upset.
I can’t really tell you anything about Snyder K-State teams you haven’t already come to expect. Simply put, so long as Snyder is patrolling the sidelines, there is no such thing as an “easy” game against K-State.
It won’t be the end of the world* were OU to lose one of these next three games, but it could very well prove to be the end of Oklahoma’s playoff chances. Fair or not, from a national perspective, this isn’t considered to be one of the stronger conferences to date. The consensus, at least right now, is pretty clearly that OU and Baylor are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. So if you go and drop a game to a team that isn’t Baylor, again fair or not, it’s going to be perceived as a ‘bad loss’ and guaranteed to be used against whatever case you try to make, or someone makes on your behalf, for one of those playoff spots. We all know they won’t need a reason an excuse to put two SEC teams in this thing.
Therefore, if you’re going to have a loss you want it to be the best possible loss. And a 7-5 TCU team** or a 6-6 Texas squad** isn’t going qualify as a ‘good loss.’
3-0 is what we want (Captain Obvious, ladies and gentlemen), but don’t expect it to be easy.
* I suppose I should qualify that with it depending on what type of fan you are and just how seriously you take these games. No judgment on my part either way.
** I don’t know how many, if any, fans from these respective teams may actually read this, but before you go ripping me this isn’t a prediction on my part. I have no clue if your team will finish better, worse, or with this exact record. I’m simply using them/it to illustrate a point. But if you still feel the need, flame away.
73 Comments
I think TCU will be the toughest defense Knight has faced in his career. Thoughts?
You can’t be serious DC?
Why not?
Alabama was the #1 rated defense statistically in all of college football last season. Not sure many would say that this TCU squad is better than the Bama D of last year.
Emphasis on “statistically”. Look at their schedule last year. They had three teams they faced that could play offense and they got shredded by all three. Other than that they padded their stats dominating turd teams like Georgia State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Colorado State, Chattanooga, and Arkansas.
And look who TCU has played this year? Absolutely nobody.
True. But when has TCU ever not had a really good defense?
Guess we will all find out on Saturday.
Indeed!
Remember Red October from 2000.
Patterson = very good defense.
Exactly.
This OU squad isn’t as good offensively this year as they were last year. More talent at RB, but a lot less experience. And WR isn’t even close. Young and Neal aren’t even in the same ballpark as Bester and Saunders. It isn’t even up for debate. And TK has now started 9 games. Only once has he shown the type of accuracy and decision making he did in the Sugar Bowl, and that was the Sugar Bowl. That would point that the Sugar Bowl was the anomoly and games like Tennessee and WVU are going to be the norm for him and his WR’s.
Have to disagree with you. I think we are a much better O than last yr. I still remember numerous 3 and outs, sometimes in a row. I think Shep and Neal are in the ball park, if not better, but definitely disagree that they “aren’t even in the same ballpark as Bester and Saunders.” I believe our OL is much better. Our RBs, all 3, are better than any last yr. Our TEs are much better, and a threat if we need them. Knight is playing well, regardless of what nay-sayers are saying. Not every pass is perfect, however, when I watch the best QBs in NFL and see them throw behind a WR, or low, I think, “If that was TK OU fans would be criticizing his accuracy.” He can, when called upon, run like a deer. Our O is MUCH BETTER this yr, IMO, and it’s not even close.
They were #1 rated defense statistically in all of college football b/c they play in the SEC. Only LSU (17pts) and Auburn (28 in regulation) scored over 10 pts on Bama, besides OU and A&M. The SEC doesn’t score on each other, either. Go back and watch Ark-TN or Vanderbilt-Kentucky, etc. No offenses. However, in 2 games with Big 12 recruited players and Big 12 offenses, A&M scored 42 pts on Bama and OU, the 4th best team in the Big 12 last yr in the weakest Big 12 season in the history of the Big 12, w/a FR QB who had one complete game under his belt going into the game, 45 pts. Bama plays in the SEC, n/Big 12. SEC=zero offense. Let them play OSU or Baylor last yr, plus OU, A&M, etc, they’d been somewhere #10-20 statistically on defense in all of college football.
I agree with DC. First of all, even though their DB coach left, they still know how to recruit over at TCU, and Gary Patterson knows a thing or two about defense. I would have put TCU’s DB’s against anybody’s last season, and they would likely have been better, bar none. I don’t think this game is going to be as easy as some think…especially if Heuple refuses to use the read option, which he has shown a tendency to do, or if another receiver doesn’t show up, or Blake Bell isn’t utilized. All of these things are tendencies OU has shown.
If both teams play to their tendencies, this could be a nail biter.
Probably true, although the slow-pokes had a pretty good defense last year.
I’d also have to say Bama had a pretty good D last year.
Bama had a good run D last year. No pass rush and no pass coverage. TCU can do all three well and Knight hasn’t faced a defense that can do all three.
I haven’t watched TCU much this year, but last year’s pass coverage was ridiculous, especially in the slant routes which we had been living off and Verrett was amazing…If its a similar thing this year, we are in trouble. TE NEEDS to be an option in this game.
It will be. That’s what TCU does and they do it very well. The only facet of the game where TCU isn’t better than Bama is in run defense, and they’re still pretty stout at that.
Yeah I don’t think TCU has nearly what Bama had last year but def better than anyone this year
So far any way
OU is not Samford, SMU, or whatever that third junk team that TCU played. Not a sure win, but not going to be a nail biter. Will be more like the Tennessee game. OU by 17-20.
I tend to agree. The Frogs D is no walk in the park for those that think this is going to be an automatic win.
I think without verrett and the dlineman that got suspended, it’ll be a little easier(it has to-those 2 are game changers), but by how much? Dunno. I’m excited to find out tho
Wait until after the game and I’ll tell you, lol.
I don’t believe TCU can stop the run and pass. I’d like to see more throws over the middle to the TE and Slot.
It isn’t that hard to stop the pass when you only have one D1 level WR and a QB that is not very accurate in the pocket. Not to mention, that QB rarely makes it past his first read, regardless of coverage. It is a shame to see the OU defense be so good this year, but have an offense that is so easy to shut down.
I would have to disagree with you.
While not the gauntlet the Sooners faced in 2000, this is a tough stretch. This is the type of stretch of games in a season that can take the team from being a really good team to a possible championship team. It will be good to watch this year’s Sooners be tested and to see how they grow through each challenge. Let’s tee it up!!
Here’s a wacky thought. Pure speculation. Definitely not counting chickens before they’re hatched, but just playing “what if.” What if OU gets to the playoffs and there’s no quarterback read option game on film for the opponents to prepare for? I know it’s a crazy thought, but the way the season’s been going… Even though Trevor’s not running it, I’d have to say “pity the fool” who doesn’t prepare for it anyway.
I know what you are saying, however, they will watch OU offenses probably back to 1999 to see our tendencies, and especially any with Knight at QB. I do agree with you that we can pull this out whenever we want. Stoops doesn’t want Knight hurt. Kills our NC chances with him hurt. Can still do it w/about anyone else hurt. Stoops seems to be telling Heupel: Don’t even let him get hit, if you can help it. The guy can run like a deer, and he does it with such ease. Watch way 2 TN players have the angle and he effortlessly runs around them for score; or for 30 yds for TD and eludes 3 players in the secondary against someone, forget who right now. We may not have the privilege of not playing his run game against KSU and Baylor, but I think Stoops will try first to win w/o using Knight’s legs in every game.
It’s like three “trap games” in a row…
I absolutely love the idea of playing stiff competition. While I want OU to win each week, we need the team to be challenged and battle tested before the National Championship Game. In addition, it would be a plus if we have TCU, Baylor, Texas, KSU, and OSU in the top 25, having lost to OU. Bring it on: OU will either show that they deserve to be there in the end or not. No other way to slice that up. As for me, I believe. BOOMER! SOONER!
I have a hard time reading all this stuff talking about OU being in the playoff and an NC contender all the while fretting over three games with TCU, Texas [at least this Texas team] and KSU.
This isn’t a gauntlet. It is two mid-pack Big XII teams and Kansas State that couldn’t convert a FG and or get their best WR to catch a sure TD pass that hit him in the chest :).
This isn’t 2000 where OU had a real gauntlet to run, which we completed and which propelled us to the NC.
I know Patterson is a very good coach and his defenses are always tough. I also know Mike Stoops and he is pretty good at scheming to stop the kinds of offenses the Frogs will show OU. On the flip side, TCU has played two true cupcakes [both with no frosting on them] and a beat up 3rd tier B1G Minnesota team.
I think OU could roll the Frogs. My guess is a 35 – 17 type game. TCU is going to have to prove to me that they are worth the hype they are getting. This is a pre-season mid-40s ranked team.
Totally agree but I think they’re trying to say that if OU loses one of these games, they are probably out of the college football playoff, regardless if they win out.
Yeah, it seems that simple, doesn’t it? I felt as confident as you going into the texsa game last season…where OU was pummeled. Stoops has taught me that nothing is automatic in October.
Well, this isn’t 2013 anymore. This is a much better team than what we had going into the Texas game. Stoops would also teach you that what happened last year has no bearing on this year :).
I would love for that to be true! But it would have to include nearly every year Stoops has been here, aside from 2000, not just last year. It seems as though OU always finds a way to lose a game in October…and it always seems to be one they shouldn’t lose (ala TTech 2011, texsa last season, etc.).
I feel differently about this team than most of the more recent teams in that I am more confident in this team than I was those others. However, I know better than to overestimate Bob Stoops. He’ll have to prove me wrong, and I hope he does!
Not sure why you feel have to justify diddly squat to these other teams. I love when they come crawling out with BS (Bama, anyone?) Texsa will have a losing season. There, I said
You know it’s going to be a tough game when the line opens at OU -6. Vegas knows what they are doing.
So Vegas had OU blowing out Texas in 2000 or 2003? Vegas isn’t trying to predict the score, or even the margin. They are trying to put a line out there that will garner 50/50 bets. SOMETIMES that means putting out a line similar to how the game will go. Sometimes it doesn’t.
I really don’t see OU not winning this game by 10 points or more.
ESPN has this game as tougher than baylor, according to FPI(also accounting for road/home venues). TCU is better than what we have seen from them the last 2 years, when we won by a combined 10 points. I hope we win by more than 10, but i will be extremely happy to walk out with a 1 point win.
Fair enough, but OU is MUCH better this season as well. I think OU wins this one, by 7-10 pts., but I’m NOT saying it’s anything close to guaranteed. Stoops has taught me that October is hard, no matter what team you’re playing.
oh i agree we are better too, just think TCU is a tough stylistic matchup. Any team that can play good defense will always have a chance.
Fair enough, but if this game is that tight, I personally don’t think that bodes well for our season. We don’t have the toughest of schedules to begin with, and if we can’t beat TCU by 10 points, I don’t see us running the table.
Guess we’ll find out on Saturday.
I’ve come to the conclusion that going in to every game we are going to be on upset alert with the exception of Kansas. So it will be huge to win out and we all know this team is capable of winning each game. At the same time we’ve come to expect that hiccup along the way.
TCU gives the Sooners fit because they don’t try out score you, they try to beat Stoops at his own game. Statistically, if it really means anything with Samford and SMU on the schedule, they look impressive only giving up 2.10 yd/att. This puts pressure on the Trevor to make the passes, and probably to someone else other then Sterling. This game I think will be the first game of the season it will come down to play of Trevor.
Jordan, thanks for the writeup and looking forward to your “What I’ll be watching for” post. I have a request for you though. What will you be watching for in the Baylor/Texas game this weekend as it will be Baylors first test against some talent on the defensive side of the ball. Anything we can be looking for in that game or the Tech/KSU game that should be early signs of how OU will matchup against KSU and Baylor?
nila and barnett are finally getting some publicity. they are on the instant awesome link on the front page of espn.com. pretty cool that they’re getting noticed, even tho that’s not why they did it
If we can run the ball, we’ll win. By what I don’t know. If we can’t, then it’ll be tough. Trevor packing it during a zone read will help.
I’m not going to be the debbie downer. I watched a team in 2000 win game after game because the players wanted to win, not because everyone expected them to win. This team has a lot of heart that we haven’t seen in a while. While it’s always possible to lay an egg, if it’s up to the players and not the game plan, I feel pretty good about our chances against anyone right now.
Another thing to go with heart is we have a lot of guys who make plays. We have striker and Grissom who really get after the qb. We have Phillips who’s a monster. Tapper and chuka aren’t going to fill the stat sheet but they’re the reason Evans and Alexander will probably have over 100 tackles each or close to it. Hayes has made plays all over the field and Sanchez had 4 ints. I don’t think you can ever say this defense is as good as the 2000 team but they face a completely different style of offenses.
On offense you have 3 running backs that make big plays. You’ve got a qb who if/when they ever let him loose will make plays all over the field. Shep is in another league than the other receivers but I think Neal and young are really coming on and will make big plays when we need them.
I always hate comparing teams because there are so many variables that can’t be compared equally but what you can compare is the fire in the eyes and the refusal to quit from player to player. I just really like what I see right now and the best part is a lot of them are young and learning on the job.
good point. and offenses and defenses and different coaches we face. our injuries, the other teams injuries etc
And NASTINESS!!!!! haven’t seen that in some time either..
You can’t hide the nastiness!
I tried to hide nastiness once…it didn’t end well for me…
It’s a talent that takes years to master. 🙂
True. And loads of it, this season! This years defense looks to be special.
Yep. You nailed it. This team has more heart than we’ve seen in Norman recently and, as Daddy R mentions, MS has brought back some nastiness.
If this is a championship team, they will win games like this (the same thing I said before the WVU game). The 2000 team did it and perhaps the 2014 team will too.
Agree and I for one like it very much.
I think Coach Mike also brought some of the discipline back. Not that BS was ever slack in his core values, but BS listens to, and trusts, Coach Mike more than anyone else on the staff. Coach Mike can pull BS aside and tell him “you’re screwing up here” or “you’ve got to handle this differently” and BS will consider it more judiciously.
It was something the team had missed, and I think BS too had missed, while he was gone.
Can’t disagree, would love to sit at that Thanksgiving table.
If this team is as good as we all think they are, TCU will not be a test, at least not a real test. I have us winning this game by 14 at least. Trevor Knight will have to preform better than he has to this point, I know a lot of his struggles are related to young receivers, but he seems to be staring down his receiver from the get go. I want to see him use his eyes to control the defense, and maybe put a little more touch on his throws, especially the long passes. If he is able to do that, we should easily leave the toad pad with a victory!
I’m not one to give TCU that much credit. Let’s keep it in mind that their 3 wins come agains Samford, Minnesota, and SMU. Let’s also not forget they’re coming off a 4 win season. We’re in Ft. Worth, but if this is the playoff team that many of us think it is, we should win this game without a scare.
Hopefully everyone has read this. It’s great.
http://oklahoma.247sports.com/Bolt/Stoops-Talks-About-Finding-Diamonds-in-the-Rough-in-Recruiting-31625918
OU will win this one convincingly. We’ve been on upset alert all year. TCU might be a good team. OU is a really good team. Rankings aren’t everything, but it is pretty rare for an unranked team to beat a top 5 team. TCU will have fits with our DL, just like every other team we’ve played. Our RB will get YAC, just like they have against every other team we’ve played. Shepard will make some huge catches, just like he has against every other team we’ve played. We might not light up the scoreboard, if 30+ doesn’t count, but TCU won’t score much either. Does anyone think TCU has a better offense than WVU? Does anyone think it’s tougher to play at TCU than it is to play at WVU? We’ve played the tougher schedule, we’ve just had a week off, and most importantly, we’re the better team. OU will go into TCU and take care of business.
I agree with everything you said, and I am wondering why more people aren’t talking about the probability of OUr defense shutting them down. They have a flashy new offense. Big deal! They are in the first year of that offense and OU is in year two of a great defense with way more talent than TCU can handle. Their defense might do a good job against OUr offense, but I think Mike’s D shuts them down.
I had a dream last night that OU rolled over TCU and went on to win the Natl. Championship, improving in each and every game. Woke up feeling exhilarated! Hope it comes to fruition. It was a great feeling!
I’ll be disappointed if OU’s D doesn’t dominate TCU’s O. TCU has only played one game, IMO, at home, against Minnesota. The SMU game has to be thrown out completely. Says nothing. TCU didn’t want to beat them by 100 pts w/no coach. The only good team TCU has played in is at home against Minn. TCU has also played Samford (n/to be confused with Stanford). Samford has beaten Stillman, so maybe they are some powerhouse I’ve never heard of. Still, I’d be embarrassed if OU only led Stillman (whoever they are and wherever they are from), 34-7 a/f 3Q and still have Boykin taking them on a possession for a TD in the 4thQ that takes a 3rd of the 4thQ. So, throw out Stillman, or was it Samford, and SMU. The only game TCU has played in is at home against Minn.
1st, the TCU D: Minn only had 14 1st downs and turned the ball over 5x. But of course don’t think Minn is an offensive juggernaut. They’re not (poet, don’t know it!). Minn at home against EIU (try figuring out who that is, exactly my point), only had 18 1st downs and only turned the ball over 1x. I think had Minn only turned the ball over 1x against TCU they’d probably have had at least 18 1st downs against TCU, also. Minn only had 18 1st downs again on MTU (yeah, again, figure out who that is), and 19 1st downs against SJSU. Minn did play well, I guess, against Michigan (20 1st downs and 30 pts), but I think we all have heard about Mich. But, give TCU D credit; they’re good, but Minn not so good on O.
2nd TCU O: Like I said, Boykin taking a 3rd of 4thQ in 34-7 game to lead TCU to TD against Stanford, or was it Stillman, no, Samford, I think. The Minn game is all we have, really. TCU scores 3 TDs on Minn and 3 FGs. The 3 TDs were from Minn 18, 27, 39 (in that order, too), a/f 43 yd punt return to Minn 18, 35 yd interception to Minn 27, and Minn lost fumble at Minn 39. One FG came a/f a recovered Minn fumble at Minn 31 where TCU doesn’t move the ball any but kicks FG. The other two FGs were the 2 most impressive drives of the day, taking the ball from the TCU 26 and 29, respectively, and moving to Minn 29 and 20 yd lines b/f kicking FGs. So, 3 TDs and 1 FG off 4 turnovers w/in Minn territory. Boykin threw 46x, and 5 out of the last 8 plays in the 4thQ were passes. Looking at other teams Minn has played, EIU/MTU/SJSU especially, they seemed to have more 1st downs and about same amount of yds and pts.
Bottom line, IMO: TCU hasn’t played anybody yet it doesn’t look like, but surely you can only count the Minn game as playing anybody. TCU caused 5 turnovers, good D, but O wasn’t impressive, IMO. Like I said, I’ll be very disappointed if OU’s D doesn’t dominate TCU’s O. I have no idea how TCU’s D will do against OU’s O, but I’ll be disappointed if we don’t stop TCU’s O. What I’d like to see is OU’s O still run. That would be sweet.
BTW, I watched the UT-KU game again Monday night. I’m not sure UT will win another game this year, and I know they play ISU at home.