Open Post | Weekend, December 21st – 23rd
Posted on: December 21, 2018
TFB Talking Point | December Recruiting Rankings Deep Dive
– Ryan Lewis
Alright – there’s one signing day down. The Sooners started yesterday with 19 commits and finished the day with 22 players both committed and signed. The additions of Jeremiah Criddell, Marcus Stripling, and Ty DeArman were welcome ones.
With some time until the February signing day and most of this 2019 class wrapped up, now seems like a good time to take a look into recruiting progressions and how New Wave 19 has gotten here.
SIGNED PLAYERS
Most of the Oklahoma class was built very early in this cycle, so the past few months have seen relatively low movement. Here’s how the 22 signed players break out by position:
QB: 1 (Rattler)
RB: 2 (Major, Stevenson)
WR: 2 (Bridges, Wease)
TE: 1 (Stogner)
OL: 4 (Alexander, Felix, Ndoma-Ogar, Wilkins)
DL: 6 (Green, Hicks, Roberson, Stokes, Stripling, Wete)
LB: 1 (Perkins)
DB: 5 (DeArman, Criddell, Davis, Morris, Washington)
They certainly aren’t done pursuing several key guys.
RECRUITING PROGRESSION
Below is a chart that captures how the recruiting class team rankings have progressed throughout the process.
The three major recruiting services each have their own data and respective line, while the red line captures the average of the three. The lower the line gets on the chart, the better recruiting looks for the Sooners. These rankings were recorded each Monday – the rankings for the 24th of this month were recorded today just to show how signing day impacted the rankings.
In a chart like this, it’s easy to see the patterns of recruiting and the periods when the Sooners are the hottest on the trail. However, just because a class ranking rises or drops doesn’t necessarily mean that a team is gaining or losing commits; sometimes, other teams just add more players during a certain stretch. With that in mind, this next chart shows the same lines, but with a little more detail.
The names of players who committed and decommitted are shown on the above chart. Commitments are shown with a +, while decomittments are shown with a –. Additionally, the total number of commits at the time are shown in parentheses.
This chart can help see the reason the average ranking climbed or fell. A few thoughts on the charts:
1. The spring game was a great time for recruiting and it shows; within a week, OU went from an average class ranking of 14 to an average class ranking of 2.
2. I find it fascinating how differently the ESPN line moves compared to that of the Rivals and 247. Those two move together – not so much with the ESPN line.
3. The trend in ranking was slightly upward for several months. This is mostly due to:
a. When a class is ranked #1… there’s only one direction it can go.
b. OU filled up a lot of positions early on in this recruiting cycle. Other schools started to catch up in number of players; many passed Oklahoma on that front.
4. December signing day was very kind to the Sooners.
Recruiting rankings are certainly not meant as a complete indicator of the level a team or player can rise to. Oklahoma recently had a former walk-on player win the Heisman and get drafted first overall in the NFL draft. The Heisman winner before Mayfield for the Sooners, Sam Bradford, was a former three star. Oklahoma traditionally develops talent extremely well, as seen in both of those players. With that said, neither coaches nor fans are upset when talented prospects choose the Sooners.
As OU closes out this class, it will be interesting to see how high the class can climb. Recruiting under Lincoln Riley has proven to be quite enjoyable so far for Sooner fans; it doesn’t seem that will change anytime soon.
Justin Fields | What We’ve Heard
– Super K
As you all know by now, former 5-star QB, Justin Fields has announced that he plans on transferring from Georgia and will seek immediate eligibility.
A couple days ago I wrote the following:
I’ll try to comment on this as carefully as possible given the sensitivity of this situation. But I’ve been told by multiple sources that if the Sooners were to pursue Fields, they’d be the leader. I’ve also been told that the Sooners are well aware of the situation with Fields and have been for a while, but there are currently too many moving parts to take any definitive steps. We’ll leave at that and perhaps we can discuss this more in the next week or so.
We’ve been holding to this for a bit. I suspect you can imagine why. I’m now able to comment on this more fully.
So, the Sooners have indeed known about this situation for a while. I’m told someone from Fields camp has been in touch. We have received word from three different sources all indicating that OU could be Fields’ likely landing spot.
One source who spoke with fields tells us that Fields is not considering FSU and is inititally limiting his considerations to only OU and Ohio State.
I would surmise that direct contact between Fields and OU will happen in earnest at some point soon. The only thing I can foresee holding this up is the tiny chance that Kyler Murray would come back. I know I know that’s crazy talk. I’ve said the same thing to my sources inside the building but they keep insisting there is a small chance. And, they have their reasons for saying that which they have explained to me and if it happens then perhaps I’ll explain it to you.
Anyhow, I’ll operate on the likely scenario where Kyler isn’t at OU next year. Then Justin Fields to OU looks very possible. Also, there are a lot of folks who believe that Fields will get a waiver for immediate eligibility based on the incident that occurred with the baseball player who was dismissed back in October for allegedly made “racially derogatory comments” directed at Fields.
Finally, yes there is very much a connection between Fields and
This takes us back to what was mentioned above, that this Field’s transfer has been in the works for a while and it was quietly moving through the grapevine.
It is the belief of our Georgia source that both Haselwood and Fields could quite possibly end up at the same spot. I’ll leave it at that. You do the math.
Quick Hitter | Secondary Options
– Charlie S
Just got off the phone with James Hale. He brought us a couple of notes of interest regarding the secondary recruiting for the New Wave 19 class.
***Source tells James, which corroborates what we have been saying, that the Sooner staff is still considering taking another safety.
***James is being told that the staff believes there are still some really good players out there on the market and he would not be surprised to see the Sooners make that push.
***One name that has been brought to James’ attention is Jalen Catalon.
Catalon at one time was thought to be a Sooner lean, however, after the Spring game where OU secured the commitment of Jarrian Jones and Chris Steele, OU kind of stepped back.
Over the rest of the cycle, OU and Catalon began to rebuild the relationship but they never really got on the same page.
Catalon did take an official visit to Norman at the end of September and it went well. However, as of right now, the word is that he is favoring Arkansas and TCU. Definitely, one to keep an eye on going forward though.
Jalen did not sign in the early period and will take his recruitment out all the way until February.
NewWave19 | Where Things Stand Post Early Signing Day
– Charlie S
Current number of scholarship players on the roster: 77
Number of players exhausting their eligibility after the 2018 season: 13 (Amani Bledsoe Included)
Current number of signed recruits for 2019: 22
Without any underclassmen declaring or any transfers, OU would be above the maximum of 85 (86) players on scholarship when spring rolls around.
Allow for anticipating 4-5 early departures, the number for the NewWave19 class could be between 22 – 27.
The Sooners will lose a relatively low amount of scholarships as well next year so they could choose to stay on the low end in anticipation of saving some scholarships for the ’20 class.
So in my opinion, there are 3-4 spots remaining for the ’19 class.
***Numbers are accurate to the best of my knowledge at this time, I could have missed something and I appreciate any input from Y’all if you see something that doesn’t add up!
Quarterback (1): Spencer Rattler
Running Back (2): Marcus Major, Rhamondre Stevenson
Wide Receiver (2): Theo Wease, Trejan Bridges
Tightend (1): Austin Stogner
Offensive Line (4): EJ Ndoma-Ogar, Stacey Wilkins, Marcus Alexander, Finley Felix
Defensive Line/Edge (6): Derek Green, Marcus Hicks, Marcus Stripling, Kori Roberson, LaRon Stokes, Joseph Wete
Linebacker (1): Jonathan Perkins
Defensive Back (4): Woodi Washington, Jaden Davis, Jamal Morris, Jeremiah Criddell
Athlete (1): Ty DeArman
Total: (22)
With 22 signed and a very real possibility to head to 26-27 here are some realistic targets at this time:
Edge: David Ugwoegbu
Wide receiver: Jadon Haselwood, Brandon Pierce
Offensive line: Danielson Ike, Enokk Vimahi, Ira Henry (maybe)
Linebacker: Shammond Cooper
Safety: I still think they could look for one more true safety and K and I have both brought up the name of Noa Pola-Gates who we have been told would welcome interest from Oklahoma (There are other options out there as well)
