OU Football’s Attrition Problem
Posted on: May 17, 2015
Image of Quincy Russell via USA Today
You may or may not remember the post we put together several months back addressing the incredible rate of attrition OU suffered with its 2011 recruiting class. And with the news Sunday of KJ Young’s dismissal, we decided to revisit things and widen the search a little bit.
Looking at OU’s next two signing classes following 2011, you start to get a sense of why the program is currently suffering from both a depth and talent problem.
2012
WR Lacoltan Bester
RB Daniel Brooks
C Ty Darlington
CB Kass Everett
WR Courtney Gardner
TE Sam Grant
TE Brannon Green
TE Laith Harlow
QB Trevor Knight
OL Kyle Marrs
OL John Michael McGee
TE Taylor McNamara
WR Trey Metoyer
WR Durron Neal
DE Chaz Nelson
DE Michael Onuoha
RB Alex Ross
CB Zack Sanchez
WR Sterling Shepard
CB Gary Simon
RB David Smith
LB Eric Striker
DE Charles Tapper
RB Damien Williams
WR Derrick Woods
2013
LB Dom Alexander
CB Dakota Austin
P Jed Barnett
WR Austin Bennett
S Hatari Byrd
WR Dannon Cavil
OL Christian Daimler
DE Matt Dimon
LB Jordan Evans
OL Tony Feo
RB Keith Ford
DT Kerrick Huggins
CB L.J. Moore
DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT Matt Romar
DT Quincy Russell
OL Dionte Savage
WR Jordan Smallwood
OL Josiah St. John
CB Stanvon Taylor
S Ahmad Thomas
QB Cody Thomas
DT Charles Walker
DE D.J. Ward
WR KJ Young
This topic has been covered by TFB and several others, but even with that in mind when you back and just look at the rate of attrition the fact it has been addressed doesn’t make it any less disturbing.
2011 class – 17 signees, 10 never made it to campus or have since transferred
2012 class – 25 signees, 10 never made it to campus or have since transferred
2013 class – 25 signees, 6 never made it to campus or have since transferred
Simple math will tell you over the course of those three recruiting classes, OU has suffered nearly a 40% attrition rate.
Yeah, um, that’s not good.
And that is also not even taking into account those players OU signed who may have stayed on campus but never really contributed in a significant way.
Missing on a single recruiting class the way OU did in 2011 can hurt a program over the course of multiple seasons, but arguably missing on (for the most part) three straight as evidenced above simply cannot happen.
And yet it did.
115 Comments
Painful to see it in perspective.
This is part of why I’ve heard so many, myself included, question why we’re trying to recruit nationally. I get that you want to go get guys like mixon, quick, gallimore, deberry among many others but why not recrut more from Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas? There’s enough kids in this area to recruit and fill out a roster and chances are they may have more of a love for ou than others who are just looking at ou’s track record of putting guys in the draft.
didn’t the ‘going nat’l’ effort really ramp up when mstoops/kish came here with all the ‘west coast contacts’……………seems to me they’re finding players wherever b/c, for whatever reason(s), ou is no longer a big boy in tx…………
I will point out that 2 of these guys cavil and ford are Texas kids. Then onuahu is from Edmond. So there’s no guarantee our regional kids will stay either.
But woods, young, Moore and macnamara are all from Cali.
well, perhaps if they can figure out what they’re doing, win again, become relevant
Agreed, I like regional recruiting a lot more than stretching the country for a handful of recruits. California has been good to us but sometimes it feels like it’s the focus and we lose out on some stud Texas recruits to SEC schools and even Baylor. Happy to see the coaching staff really attack Louisiana this spring, though.
Would be interesting to see what the average attrition rate is on a national scale.
Very good point. Is it just us or is this a common occurrence?
Wellllll since your going there…to me it’s coaching how does Myers fart and win a title same with FSU and Bama ….I’m sure they have the same problems yet they are getting it done..
We all love Bob want his babies etc but to me it’s time to put a new face on Oklahoma football before it’s to late..
I bet if you run those numbers with any of the other top tier programs you will get the same or even higher attrition numbers.
Happens at every school, its the way college football is.
40% attrition rate over a three year span at every school? I sincerely doubt it, but I’d welcome anyone to run the numbers and prove me wrong. I suspect you’ll find some similar, probably even worse, but to insinuate it’s as common as it seems you’re suggesting seems off base, IMO. But admittedly that’s an assumption on my part.
Also for those other schools namely sec schools, one would have to look at the over signing and kids who never make it. If OU were over signing kids then we may not care as much for the ones who don’t make it.
What would be acceptable rate? Given that some rate is unavoidable.
Jordan, did you see above, that per an ESPN article researching attrition, the top 5 classes from 2007 had 52% attrition? Belotti, a top coach and administrator says that based on his experience, 30-35% is normal.
So you being the “expert” that you are, say the research of ESPN and experience of Belotti are bunk, and OU has “an attrition problem”?
Seems to me to be just another Jordan Esco spin of facts to suit his anti Stoops agenda.
Not at the top tier schools. Zack nails this on the head for the SEC as well.
Seems eye opening, but then like any data–compare to what? Is this normal or abnormal for a top 20 program?
So if you just look at the crossed out guys and assign them to a recruiter…does that show anything of interest?
And the attrition is not done….more will choose to leave Norman before the end of summer.
Maybe…just maybe, some of the things Clemson linebacker and former Sooner Kellen Jones said prior to the bowl game were correct.
Thanks Nostradamus.
So you mean Kellen Jones, the player who originally signed with Michigan, then moved on the Oklahoma, then to Clemson? The one who publicly stated he now hated his childhood favorite, Texas, because they didn’t recruit him. Then before the bowl game, he pronounces his hate for OU. Probably because he didn’t get as much PT as he thought he should. He seems like a reliable source regarding things OU.
I thought he said he signed up to play for Venables, and wanted to follow him. That would also make Paul’s comment above ridiculous.
Of course his comment is ridiculous.
Hope it is not true, but if it is it is different from this young man, he did not “choose” to leave (well maybe inadvertently when he chose to break the rules) but either way he was ‘asked’ to leave…
lol all this boils down to the fact that OU had a bad season last year. Wining cures everything.
After we went 11-2 and beat Alabama, no one was complaining about attrition rates or Mike Stoops better off in the booth.
But since we are coming off a bad season, there must be something to blame it on.
40% attrition is not good.
40% is unacceptable. Would guess ‘the norm’ would be 20-30%? I don’t pay much attention to other schools but this seems to have been a problem at OU under Stoops and maybe beyond. Always seemed to be high with Oline but then that is one of your larger groups. Recall some Oline coach who was said to be very tough on kids. Not sure where the problem is as OU seems to get ‘high character’ kids for the most part.
Per an ESPN article, somewhere between 30% and 50%. The article studied the top five recruiting classes from 2007, and they had 52% attrition. Mike Belotti was asked his perspective as a long time coach and administrator and his response was that 30% to 35% was normal.
So your guess at normal would seem to be low, perhaps way low.
40% is probably high, probably 10-15% above normal. But not excessively above normal, e.g. the 52% attrition for the top 5 2007 classes.
Perhaps this might help…
2012
WR
Courtney Gardner JAY NORVELL
TE Laith
Harlow BRUCE KITTLE
OL Kyle
Marrs JAMES PATTON
OL John
Michael McGee JAMES PATTON /JOSH HUEPEL
TE
Taylor McNamara BRUCE KITTLE
WR Trey
Metoyer JAY NORVELL
DE
Michael Onuoha BOBBY JACK WRIGHT
CB Gary
Simon MIKE STOOPS
RB David
Smith CALE GUNDY
WR
Derrick Woods JAY NORVELL
2013
WR
Dannon Cavil JAY NORVELL
RB Keith
Ford CALE GUNDY
DT
Kerrick Huggins JACKIE SHIPP
CB L.J.
Moore UNK (Mike Stoops??)
DT
Quincy Russell JACKIE SHIPP
WR KJ
Young TIM KISH
That would clear some things up
Interesting. Was pointed out previously that Norvell got some high profile kids like Metoyer. Was he also the recruiter for Justin McCay and Jarboe? Most never panned out/developed. With Gundy, it’s attrition due to depth because of the quality players he has brought.
I think 2011 is inflating your percentage there. Not saying anything is fine at all by any means but it seems the 5-6 we’ve lost from 2012 and 2013 seems about or below normal. When you lose 10 from a class of 17, that’s going to blow up any over all picture.
2011
Marquis Anderson – JACKIE SHIPP
Dylan Dismuke – JAMES PATTON
Nathan Hughes – JAMES PATTON/BOBBY JACK WRIGHT
Kameel Jackson – JAY NORVELL
Bennett Okotcha – Brent
Venables/Willie Martinez
Max Stevenson – UNK
KITTLE?
Dan Tapko – UNK
Kendal Thompson – CALE
GUNDY/JOSH HUEPEL
Brandon Williams – CALE GUNDY/JAMES PATTON
Danzel Williams – BRENT
VENABLES/CALE GUNDY
Over blown statistics…. Every team in the country deals with this! Don’t make a mountain out of a mole hill! If the players that leave contributed significantly, and they are leaving, then it is an issue…. Home sickness, injuries, poor choices happen…. Please don’t over play y’all’s hand…. You’re better than that.
i would love to see how many of the “40%” are positively contributing at another D1 university at football….
If they aren’t, it is even more glaring evidence of recruiting malfeasance. And the buck stops with the head football coach …
And where are those coaches now?
Being a numbers-guy, I would like to know if a baseline has been established for universities. What is the national average of attrition for the Power 5 conferences?
It’s possible this is the norm. It’s also possible OU’s attrition is higher. But before I react, I’d like to know the attrition rate at all universities.
The high attrition could possibly be the explanation OU hasn’t offered some recruits. However, this is a problem but it’s not my problem. I can hope for the best but it’s out of my control. I can’t give this anymore energy because I need to spend the energy on the wellness of my family: this I can control.
In short, it is what it is. It will pass, the good and the bad: it always does.
This topic is very interesting and the NCAA doesn’t track “attrition” only graduation success rate. Just posted an article at the top from 2012 that describes it a little bit in depth.
I’ll check it out.
But…with all these receivers that we’ve missed on…don’t you have to like the fact that jay norvell is in Austin?
And yet there are still the deniers who won’t admit that this factor is one reason why Bob Stoops is in trouble.
So, what is the solution Herman?
Herman, I’m curious: Is every aspect of your life, personal and professional, in tip top shape? Are the people who report to you always at their best?
You are a fool if you believe that. Guys that have accomplished what Bob has at OU, don’t get shown the door due to the results we’ve seen in recent seasons. They don’t. Not at programs like OU, and certainly not b/c our sometimes ridiculous fan base says its time.
Older article that gives a look at attrition:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=ncf&id=7525479
Key excerpts from the article:
But how those recruiting classes make their mark on the field in a few years will often look very different from those tidy lists released by teams. Consider the consensus top five hauls in 2007: Florida, USC, Tennessee, LSU and Higgins’ pick, Texas. An analysis by The Associated Press showed that of the 123 high school players who sent in letters to those programs on signing day, only 59 (48 percent) were still on the teams’ rosters as seniors in 2010 or ’11 (depending on whether they redshirted)…
A program is fortunate to keep more than 80 percent of a signing class deep into those players’ careers, Bellotti said, but 65-70 percent is more typical. He suspects that as early commitments have become more common, attrition increases, because it’s harder to predict whether a high school junior will pan out than a senior.
EDIT: Forgot to note that this was from 2012. Just started looking it over but I thought this interesting in light of the topic.
Good one. 65-70%, attrition of 25-30%, seems like a reasonable #. Not good, but reasonable with all of the possible outcomes: injury, depth, grades and the random acts of stupidity taken into account.
Yep. Explains why 40%, albeit not a massive difference, is still a significant percentage.
10 in one class skews the overall number. Looking forward to the new coaches and their approach to evaluating players.
I thought you said death and not depth…
ha.
Tucker, thanks for posting. Good stuff. This is my point. We need to take a deeper dive before we assume this is unique to OU only.
In my industry, employee churn of 33% is normal. Losing one-third of your employees each year is disastrous. The public is unpredictable. Recruits are make up the public sector, which makes them unpredictable.
It is unreasonable to think that Stoops will get only the best citizens the public has to offer. It’s also unfair. Before someone says ”
Burn’em!” and bring closure to the witch hunt, let’s see what the athletes are doing today, the ones who have left OU.
Did they land and at another program and become superstars? Have they attained their degrees? Did they enroll at another university? Or, are they just the bad sector of our society, unable to be rehabilitated?
There’s a lot we have to know. We can start by seeing how OU compare to other Power % programs and conclude with what have these young men did after they left OU.
I believe the 2014 class was 26 and it seems we’ve only lost a few from that class. So we are trending in the right direction.
Yeah but this would be the end of their 2nd semester on campus so that’s nothing to write home about. I do hope the 2014 class is a very successful one.
an eye-opening article. thanks JE……….
SALE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kick rocks!!
Wow, what a waste of resources.
Interesting statistics and thanks for posting. I have to agree that keeping those you do recruit is as important in who you recruit in the first place. That said, here’s something else to consider. The six year graduation rate at OU is 65.6%. It doesn’t appear that OU does a better job retaining students than it does in retaining athletes. (BTW, the four year rate is 34.8%)
The devil is in the details.
Huggins shouldn’t even be on this list …If guys don’t make it to campus then imo it isn’t attrition..they didn’t qualify to even get to that category
OU has a coaching problem—-plain and simple. Hopefully this has been resolved but the players on the field are far from the problem.
What is the problem? Facts, not hear se.
You’re blinder than Ray Charles if you can’t see the obvious here.
Is it possible to be blinder than a man who can not see? Say, is Stevie Wonder more blind than Ray Charles?
Facts, please. Assume I don’t know anything. Please help me see.
I’m not here to convince you of anything @samsooner:disqus—you came here to be offended and argue.
I’m not here to do either sir.
ND 52, what is the obvious? thanks
I simply asked a question, my request was that you back it up with facts.
You came on to an internet message board and demand facts? Wow, okay ……..@samsooner:disqus
Is it okay that I question what you know. I’m a practical person. I like to know as much as I can. I, as well as you, will not accept what someone says as the gospel. If I accept it without any validation, well, that’s just foolish.
If what you say is valid, I will admit it. Until then, you’re like most people: you’re just spouting off because you’re frustrated.
Welcome to the internet @samsooner:disqus!
Listen, I’ve read a lot of things you posted. I’ve not agreed with a lot of what you say. I’ve kept quiet. I wish I’d kept quiet one more time.
We all believe what we believe. But if you think that anyone should abandon their belief because you’ve said something, I’m not that guy.
You need to convince me.
Good night.
Lol! @samsooner:disqus No one is trying to convince you of anything whatsoever……………….
At all.
Period.
No, but you are pretty effective at proving you are a blowhard. You came in spouted off then ran when asked to back it up in any way. I have no idea what the hell you are talking about so yea, you could be right or wrong but who the hell knows when you don’t say anything.
It’s called an internet message board and no one—-no one whatsoever—-forced you into responding @brainpimp:disqus
Yet another person who came on here looking to be offended and succeeded.
Congrats.
No, I didn’t. What would be closer tot he truth is you came on here looking to be a smartass and you succeeded.
Of course @brainpimp:disqus—-stating my opinion on a message board is now considered rude and offensive.
I could say that water is wet and you’d be offended. The irony of your avatar is not lost on me btw.
No being an ass about your opinion is the problem. poor little butthurt thing. Someone dared to ask you to explain your opinion and you go all teenage girl.
Everyone can have an opinion but they all aren’t equal.
Hey guys, take it to LT. We don’t need this garbage on this site.
It would be fun to see everyone’s LT identity revealed. I’m guessing the same people arguing here may very well argue over there. LOL.
I’ve been trying to think of a good graphic to invite someone to go to LT; maybe someone here has some talent for that. We’ve got a “ban hammer” … and we need a “one-way ticket to LT”
Include me out, never even visited there.
I believe you but there is a guy who has your avatar. Posting style doesn’t match so I never suspected it was you. 🙂
Hate to hear Bud is not being well represented.
No finer gentleman ever lived.
I don’t read everything but I’ve never seen this poster do him any disrespect. I could just tell it wasn’t you.
Wow…that didn’t take long! You stay classy @brainpimp:disqus 😀
I am like the others. I am not trying to argue but, I want to know the facts. I know a few people, maybe a lot do not like Stoop’s but, what is the actual problem you are speaking of?
Have to agree with SamSooner here. What are the problems? Tell me a school that has an ideal coach that has coached 10 years in a place that somebody can’t criticize. Personally, we are blessed indeed to have Stoops. We should have won the 2 games last yr, and that’s ANOTHER 10 game season. I want NCs, but I like the fact we win a lot of games and are talked about and are in a lot of NCs. There are some facts–OU is good yr in and yr out.
I strongly disagree with the entire premise of this post. Attrition is a good and necessary thing for any program to be successful. Without attrition, there is no way to eliminate your recruiting mistakes or make room for new players you hope are better than the ones not performing. Over a 5 year period, you can recruit up to 125 players but only have scholarship room for 85 of these players. That means 40 have to be eliminated through attrition or about 30-35% of all those recruited. If everyone stayed the full 5 years, we would only be able to sign a class of 17 recruits each year. If only half of those recruits pan out, which is about par for the course, that leaves about 8-9 kids each class who contribute in any fashion whatsoever. Now that is a recipe for disaster. You must be able to recruit 23-25 each year to increase your odds of getting 12-13 solid players in each class.
I agree that 30% should be the normal target percentage in order to keep things building. 40 is a little high but not terrible unless it becomes the norm.
Agreed. You are going to lose players, some because they never pan out. You will lose others because they can’t adjust to facing competition as good as they are.
If you really want a more accurate snapshot, look at the NFL.
Just remember a few weeks ago, people were freaking out because we were slated to only have 14 seniors and the possibility of only having 14 ships to give in the ’16 class. By those numbers, we obviously haven’t had enough attrition, not too much.
Touche.
Dave, I understand where you are coming from and agree to a point. But attrition is not good … especially for these 19-yr-old kids who are wasting their God-given opportunities. It’s not a disaster for OU to lose some of these kids … next man up … but it is a disaster for the kids. My heart hurts for them.
I agree. 8 starters out of the 2012 class. 7 starters out of 2013 class. The only negative is the thing called depth but that’s how college is with the 85 limit.
If you have half a recruiting class pan out you are in deep trouble
There are too many variables to factually understand why some student athletes succeed at OU and some do not. There is much much more to it than just numbers and percentages. I’m sure it can be generalized to some major variables but that is neither here nor there. A lot of success or accomplishments hinge on the actors strong desire to ‘do it’ no matter the situation or circumstance. Cultivate, motivate, train and prepare those who stay for the opportunity that has been given them and wish the rest success in their chosen path. Boomer!
Would love to see how other teams stack up. I bet they are more comparable than we’d think.
I have seen it mentioned elsewhere that the “blue bloods” run between 20-30%. During the same three year period, ’11 ’12 ’13, Bama averaged mid to upper 20’s (not sure if over signing was considered). Can’t verify the accuracy of these numbers, just repeating others.
I’d like to see what Tennessee’s numbers are..you know they signed like 40 the last two years…I’d actually like to see one over a longer period of time on a chart…three years isn’t really much to go off of especially when you’ve changed both offense and defensive philosophies during that period…you’re gonna see more attrition than normal
Bama forced a lot into Medical status so they weren’t counted as transfer or they quit.
Judging from recent results, we could use a few new players.
Looks like Texass numbers
What is the avg. of other schools though. I would like to know that before jumping off a cliff.
Oh and 5 are WR’s that left or didn’t make and then add ones that didn’t perform and you can see why Norvell is gone.
So everyone wants Stoops to make changes. He then gets rid of every position coach but one and moves him to a different position. Therefore, none of the 2011 class is playing for the coach they came here to play for. So people start complaining that those kids are leaving in larger numbers than normal. I don’t think it is possible to please some people.
Agree with you bob with the coaching changes he should be given two year ‘s to see if it will work.
Speaking of wr here’s 2 we should be looking at.
http://www.hudl.com/athlete/2601080/highlights/181160378/v2
http://247sports.com/Player/Bubba-Ogbebor-78919
Ok, let us think this through. A school can sign 25 in a class. A school can redshirt an entire class so a school can have 125 signees but for the 85 scholly limit. That is a 32% attrition. For a variety of reasons, schools often have less than 85 on scholly. At 80, that is a 36% attrition. So I don’t see a huge problem at OU with attrition.
What I do see is poor evaluation of character and ability. One doesn’t get dismissed from the team unless he has multiple violations or pulls a whopper of a blunder. The guys who’ve been dismissed for multiple violations obviously had character flaws.
I believe Norvell knew of some of these issues but believed he could make a difference in their lives. As evidenced by the dismissals, he was wrong
He made numerous mistakes evaluating talent and assessing true interest.. I also believe he got played by several top recruits. Stillwell, DGB and Agholor to name 3. Meanwhile he was losing speedy receivers to Baylor while he went after size.
In short, I believe Norvell is a good man, but an overrated recruiter.
EVALUATION : an understated coaching skill……Switzer was above average. many present Little 12-2 coaches not as good = high attrition rates at several schools…………
Historically, most teams have experienced an attrition rate of roughly 1/3rd. And, that is historically true for OU as well. And, I know it for a fact as I used to keep track of such things where OU is concerned. For several decades you could count on OU losing about 1/3 of their recruits. About 1/3rd of the annual recruits would turn out to be starters and the remaining 1/3rd would add depth and get significant playing time and make significant contributions to the team.
This is why OU needs to start OVERSIGNING classes by a lot each year. Otherwise we are playing with one hand tied behind our back.
Personally I think this is just something you see at schools with big time programs. We recruit top talent all across the country and they all believe they can come in and start, which is statistically impossible. Some of these are poor decision JUCO targets, some are unfortunate injuries causing loss of play, and some are guys who grinded out being a depth spot and left for their senior or post-graduate season to actually see the field. Obviously the dismissals hurt but at least we are a program with enough integrity to identify a problem, address it, and dismiss if necessary.
Chive on…..
I wonder what the attrition rate is at FSU, Bama, Ohio State, USC, Texas, LSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Miami, Notre Dame, etc
Saying these numbers are “not good” without any other comparison is propaganda.
Say what you will about Kersey, I think this was a good article which highlights the personnel evaluation/character issues with Norvell. Glad it’s now for UT to deal with
http://newsok.com/oklahoma-football-k.j.-young-the-latest-in-troubling-trend-of-ou-receiver-busts/article/5420083