The Football Brainiacs

I hope I don’t look like a fool for this tomorrow, but I was rooting for Georgia to beat Auburn in the SEC Championship.  I thought that if that happened, Georgia and Oklahoma would be in some order #’s 2&3, and that Georgia was the best 1st round matchup for the Sooners.

 

The two teams I didn’t want to see in the playoffs were Ohio State and Clemson.  I figured that after the flag planting in Columbus, the Buckeyes wouldn’t be short on emotion if they saw the Sooners again.  I also felt like the Buckeyes let the Sooners off the hook to a degree.

 

Against Ohio State J.K. Dobbins averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and Mike Weber averaged 9.7.  Still Kevin Wilson, insisted on more and more qb run game along with passing that hurt the buckeyes.  The guy with the most carries was J.T. Barrett who had 18 carries for 3.7 yards a pop.  I felt like there was a point where Weber if he ever got an opportunity would have gashed the Sooners, but he didn’t.

 

On the flip side of that, Mark Andrews got hurt early in that game, and was a non-factor really.  Badet had the lateral fumble, Adams had a fumble, and Calcaterra dropped a sure touchdown pass early in that game that without those plays, the Sooners win that game going away more so than they did.

 

I didn’t want to see Clemson because of the QB run game.  The Sooners struggled mightily against Tulane, K-State and West Virginia(wildcat) facing QB run game.  Now after watching so much film, the Bulldogs run the wildcat a bit, and I expect to see a lot of it tomorrow.

 

A few things the Sooners have going for them.  One they’re dang good.  Two, they’ve heard for a month now about how the defense is going to overwhelm the offense, and how the Sooners defense is going to get beat like a drum against this Georgia offense.

 

This team plays with more of a chip on its’ shoulder than any Sooner team I’ve seen since…well…2000.  Baker leads that charge and has carried the “Pretenders” sign with him everywhere this week in Pasadena.  The offensive line is pissed because they didn’t win the Joe Moore Award.  The defense is pissed because everyone says they can’t get it done, and if I had to describe this team in a word it would be…Pissed.

 

I called Super K a few weeks ago, and I asked him to shoot me straight.  We were both big believers in that 2015 team until Clemson overwhelmed the Sooners in the Orange Bowl with their length and size in the trenches.  I asked him if we were looking at this team with “Crimson-Colored Glasses”.  We both agreed that we didn’t think that we were.  There are size upgrades all along the Offensive and Defensive lines.

 

Offensive line 2015:  LT Brown, LG Jonathan Alvarez, C Ty Darlington, RG Nila Kasitati, RT Dru Samia

Offensive line 2017:  LT Brown, LG Ben Powers, C Erick Wren, RG Dru Samia, RT Bobby Evans

Powers, Wren and Samia are big upgrades at all three of the interior spots and provide especially with Powers and Wren a lot more size.  Samia is a big guard whereas he was a small tackle.  From a talent standpoint Evans is really good, and the O line is upgraded over where it was substantially.

 

Defensive Line wise, Obo is bigger than Striker by a lot.  Kelly is bigger than Devante Bond, and Lampkin is way bigger than Romar who was the starter at nose in Miami.  Then at the 4i spots, Kenneth Mann and D.J. Ward have length for days.  Don’t forget Overton & Gallimore in the middle, and Amani Bledsoe is quite a bit bigger than Charles Tapper.

 

At halftime of that 2015 Orange Bowl, Oklahoma led 17-16.  Then they were shut out in the 2nd half and simply worn down by Clemson’s depth, and Oklahoma’s inability to consistently run the ball against them.  The thing that stands out to me this year vs then, is that the Sooners were able to run the ball when they had to against Ohio State in the 3rd and 4th quarter.  Also against that all everything O line Ohio State, the D Line wasn’t overwhelmed.

 

The Buckeyes rushed for 167 yards vs. Oklahoma.  Against the best defense in the country at the time Wisconsin, they ran for 238.  Against Michigan 226, Penn State 201, Michigan State 335, and the only defenses to hold Ohio State to less rushing yards than the Sooners did was Iowa and USC…both allowed 163.  So I find it odd, that while none of the above listed defenses would really be questioned a lot as to whether they could contain Georgia’s run game, I heard today on the radio the pundits talking about how Oklahoma’s linebackers don’t like contact.

 

Against Notre Dame, Georgia managed 185 yards on the ground, but the thing that stood out to me about that game is that Notre Dame was only able to run 37 times for 55 yards.  The Irish for the year averaged 279 on the ground per game.

 

So all things considered, and after watching more than my fair share of film on both Oklahoma and Georgia, this is what I think happens.  I don’t think that Oklahoma’s defense is going to get boat raced, but I don’t think they’ll completely shut Georgia down either.

 

I don’t think that Georgia’s defense is going to be able to shut down Baker and the passing attack like what everyone says.  I believe the offensive line will hold up in protection.  A lot of this game will be Oklahoma’s ability to deal with Georgia’s blitz.  They’re going to attack that counter play OU likes to run and try to force negative plays.  If Oklahoma can stay a step ahead of them and hit them where the blitz is coming from, then there will be big plays to be had.  I think that Georgia is good defensively up front, but I don’t think their defensive front is better than what we saw against Auburn last year in the Sugar Bowl.

 

From an intangible standpoint, I haven’t seen this Sooner team lay down or give up under any circumstances this year.  They went into the horseshoe and by most accounts dominated a playoff worthy team. They got down against Texas and responded.  They were down a lot at K-State and responded.  They had a dogfight in Stillwater, but made plays when they had to and proved by far to be the more mentally tough team against O-State.  Essentially, Baker Mayfield got Mason Rudolph to tap out.  They rose to the occasion twice against TCU throttling them both times.

 

Georgia however played one close game in Notre Dame.  When they got down against Auburn the 1st time, they rolled over and gave up, and that my friends is the key to this game.  If the Bulldogs go down a couple of scores early, then I think they’ll roll over.  However, there isn’t an ounce of give up or quit in this Sooner team.  Baker won’t allow that to happen.  His leadership is something that can’t be denied, and while they say in the NFL all the time it’s a quarterback driven league, he by far in my opinion is the best qb in the college football playoff.  If this game turns into a 15 round fight, my money’s on Baker and company.  I just have a feeling this Sooner team is the one nobody is talking about having a chance, and that’s exactly how they like it.

 

The score that comes into my mind is 42-20 Sooners.  Whether that happens or not, who knows.  Even as I type this, the more rational side of my brain says it’s more like 24-23, but either way I think Oklahoma wins.  The Sooners have a better QB.  Better Offensive line and a better kicker.  The Bulldogs have a better LB corps and a better Secondary but not by much.  D Line I think is a push.  Skill position wise I think the Sooners have a slight edge.

 

Finally I’m already worked up and we still have almost a full 24 hours left before kickoff tomorrow.  That’s normally a really good sign.  I’m looking forward to it!  Boomer!