The Football Brainiacs

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When Oklahoma has the ball

– Indiana’s Richard Lagow was 40/65 passing for 410 yards against the Buckeyes during Week One. This really made me think about two things, offensively speaking, for the Sooners:

– Baker Mayfield > Richard Lagow
– If Oklahoma throws the ball 65 times against the Buckeyes they, like Indiana, will lose.

– If the Sooners have to rely too heavily on the passing game, that means that either the Ohio State defensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage against the OU offensive front OR the play selection from Lincoln Riley is similar to the 2016 contest between these two teams (Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine combined for only 26 carries).

– Read the above bullet point one more time. Now, read this: the Oklahoma offensive line is not going to be manhandled by Ohio State. Will the Buckeyes’ very talented front end make some plays? Yes. They are too good to dominate. Is the Oklahoma offensive line talented enough to neutralize the Buckeyes defensive line and have enough “wins” in the trenches for OU to be successful on the ground? Yes.

– I’ll be as honest here as I can possibly be: I do not believe Ohio State will be able to slow down the Oklahoma offense. I have heard some say Indiana had a lot of success against them because the Buckeyes prepared more for Oklahoma. That would be the most idiotic thing ever decided by Urban Meyer. No one is going to intentionally not prepare for a season opener against a conference opponent on the road. No one. Indiana was just able to exploit some weaknesses in the back end of the Buckeyes’ defense that I believe Mayfield and Company will be able to carve up.

– Be watching to see how the Sooners’ wide receivers get off coverage, settle into zones, and find openings. I thought they did a poor job of this against UTEP and it was really my only complaint about the offense from Week One.

– Who will get the bulk of the carries Saturday for the Sooners? Abdul Adams looked better than I anticipated and I really liked what Marcellias Sutton did when he got his hands on the football. I think these two will get the most touches in the Horseshoe.

– Mark Andrews is going to have another big game. I realize that is not going out on a limb here, but can Ohio State put consistent pressure on Mayfield? I’d say the answer is “no” and, because it is “no,” Mayfield is going to be able to sit back and find Andrews, who is a nightmare matchup for every team on OU’s schedule. If he is not targeted 8-10 times Saturday night, I might blow up Twitter.

– CeeDee Lamb is a star and he is going to prove it further Saturday.

– Jeff Badet is going to erase any doubt as to the depth of the Sooners’ wide receiver corps.

– Marquise Brown will do something big Saturday. I can feel it.

– Mayfield is going to distribute the football much like he did Saturday. Too many weapons for him not to do so.

– Remember how the 2017 Sugar Bowl started sort of slow for the Sooners offense? I think that will be the case again Saturday. The Sooners’ offensive line will be facing a lot of talent on the other side of the football. Watch this battle early on. Don’t follow the ball. I think what you see will give you a glimpse into the rest of the game.

When Ohio State has the ball

– JT Barrett still scares me because he is very mobile.

– How do the Sooners keep him from being so scary? Apply proper pressure with the defensive line. I use the term “proper” because it seems, more often than not the past few years, the Sooners get someone into the backfield who takes a poor angle to the ball carrier and misses a chance for a tackle for loss or sack. I want to see OU getting inside that “butt line” and keeping a center of gravity and just making a tackle.

– Count how many yards after contact the Ohio State backfield has. I think this will be the key to an OU victory.

– Losing Jordan Parker definitely hurts the OU secondary, but it is time to see what Tre Norwood, Tre Brown, etc., are made of and why they came to Oklahoma. This game is going to give someone a chance to become a rising star.

– The Sooners have to close a few windows every now and then. There were some plays against UTEP that were missed/dropped that could have extended drives for the Miners. While there has been a widely aired touchdown drop against Indiana, I don’t believe Ohio State will do the Sooners any favors in the mistakes department.

– OU has to wrap up the ball carriers. I’ll build on that third bullet point by saying there really is not a single player on the defense right now I wholeheartedly trust to make a one-on-one tackle.

– If Barrett has time to throw, the Ohio State receivers are talented enough to work themselves open. It is imperative the Sooners apply consistent pressure.

OVER/UNDER FUN

– Baker Mayfield Passing Attempts: 35

– Oklahoma Rushing Yards: 155

– Mark Andrews Receptions: 5

– Penalties on Ohio State: 6

– Penalties on Oklahoma: 9

– Ohio State Passing Yards: 280

– Ohio State Rushing Yards: 175

FINAL THOUGHTS

Last year, I think I was the only TFB’er who picked Ohio State to beat Oklahoma. This year, I am not much more confident, simply because I still am not sure the defense has improved enough to beat a team like Ohio State. The Sooners have the offense, I’m not worried about that. What concerns me is Ohio State eating up clock by holding the football and extending drives. If the Oklahoma defense can’t get off the field and put Mayfield and the offense back between the hashes, it will be a long night.

Unfortunately, for my prediction, I just can’t say I have faith the Sooners defense can do it enough times to pull off a victory.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 38 Oklahoma 31