Bedlam Preview – A Tale of Two Offenses
Posted on: December 4, 2013
Image from the Associated Press (Photographer: Sue Ogrocki)
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…
When K asked me to take a look at whether we would be able to run against Oklahoma State, and whether Oklahoma State would be able to run against us, I couldn’t wait to dig into it. So of course I go get my shovel and start digging away. As I started digging I couldn’t help but recognize the similarities of both offensive teams. JW Walsh started the year at QB for Oklahoma State, and when he was taking the snaps, the Cowboys employed an attack that was a more balanced or even pass first style. A friend of mine and I were talking the other day and he said “how in the world did West Virginia ever beat Okie Lite?” That’s a really good question now that you look at it. Coach Stoops says year in and year out that you just have to keep winning and everything else will take care of itself.
As Sooner fans we get worked up more than a lot of fan bases when we don’t look as impressive as we should in a win. How many Cowboy fans would take an ugly win over WV now that the dust has settled? Given the chaos that always seems to take place this time of year, Stoops couldn’t be more right. Three weeks ago, Florida State, Alabama, Ohio State and Baylor were all going to be undefeated at the end of the year. There wasn’t any possible way that anyone on any of those four schedules would be able to derail them. Well, fast forward a few weeks and now, Ohio State narrowly escapes Ann Arbor, Alabama loses to Auburn on what has to be one of the craziest finishes I’ve seen. Baylor gets dominated by Oklahoma State, and now Florida State and Ohio State are being coronated as the two teams that will be in Pasadena. Meanwhile a squad in East Lansing may have something to say about that on Saturday, and what happens if Michigan State knocks off Ohio State and Missouri beats Auburn? Who knows how this season will end up, and who will end up in what bowl game, but I guess what I’m trying to say is that if things can change so much from week to week, how much can things change over the course of the season?
When you look at how Oklahoma State attacked West Virginia, compared to what they’ve done against teams lately, the water gets a little less muddy. What can’t be overstated as well is WHO is doing the attacking.
1. OSU vs. WVA (JW Walsh Starter) 40 runs & 40 passes Loss
2. OSU vs. TX (Clint Chelf Starter) 40 runs & 22 passes Win
3. OSU vs. Baylor (Clint Chelf Starter) 46 runs & 27 passes Win
4. OSU vs. TTU (Clint Chelf Starter) 55 runs & 34 passes Win
Also, when you look at how we’ve done things lately:
1. OU vs. TX (Blake Bell Starter) 33 runs & 26 passes Loss
2. OU vs. Baylor (Blake Bell Starter) 34 runs & 35 passes Loss
3. OU vs. TTU (Blake Bell Starter) 50 runs & 22 passes Win
4. OU vs. ISU (Blake Bell Starter*) 44 runs & 23 passes Win
5. OU vs. KSU (Trevor Knight Starter) 52 runs & 21 passes Win
What can’t be missed here is that when Oklahoma State averages 47 runs & 28 passes, they win. In similar fashion, when we run 49 times and pass 22 times, we win. While we don’t have the impressive wins over Texas and Baylor, the parallels that can be drawn are striking. Had Clint Chelf been the starter against WVU, most likely we’re having the conversation about Oklahoma State jumping Ohio State for a chance to play FSU in the BCS game if they win this week. Subsequently, I know we all at Brainiacs feel that the outcomes against Texas and Baylor would have been different had we attacked them like we did K-State and Iowa State. While hindsight is always 20-20, what can’t be overstated is how powerful playing to your strengths actually is. Also, having “the guy” calling the shots is just as important if not more. On the flip side of that, what can’t be simply dismissed is not having “the guy”.
I got up early this morning because I wanted to get cracking on this. I like to turn the tv on, so I can have some background noise going while I work on this stuff. It was odd that the movie Hoosiers was on, and it’s one of those I can’t not watch. Fortunately the wife was still asleep, so I didn’t have to hear “are you watching this again?” Anyway, what struck me is that the Hickory Huskers weren’t the same team without Jimmy Chitwood as they were with ’em. While they were really good without him, Jimmy made them special.
In my opinion, Trevor Knight has had a similar effect on our offense. Against K-State, if our secondary doesn’t give up all those big plays in the second quarter, we win that game in blowout fashion. At halftime we had already run the ball for close to 250 yards, and had completely shut down their run game. They finished off the day running for only 24 yards on 22 carries.
Looking at the defenses now, against the offenses…
OU is 15th in rush offense with 242.3 yards per game vs. OSU’s rush defense at 21st yielding 130.0 yards per game.
OSU is 59th in rush offense with 169.5 yards per game vs. OU’s rush defense at 24th yielding 132.7 yards per game.
What you can’t do is sleep on the 59th ranking that O-State’s rushing offense has. Bottom line is they can run the ball when they want to. While I’ve hit you with a ton of stats, I need you to hang in there and let me hit you with a couple of more. The most telling stats going into this game to me are that Oklahoma State has the 5th ranked red zone defense in the country, giving up a score only 66% of the time. The reason for that is they also have the 2nd ranked turnover margin in the country. So what that says to me is once teams get in the red zone, Oklahoma State forces a turnover. Baylor did it twice against them. Fumbled once on the goal line going in, and then another time that the Cowboys returned for a TD. While Okie Lite won that game 49-17, that game’s a whole lot different if Baylor scores on both of those chances. Baylor had em first and goal on the one, and then fumbled. Okie lite goes the length of the field and scores to go up 7-0. The halftime score was 14-3, so it’s safe to assume it’s somewhere in the 14-10 neighborhood at half. Similarly it’s very possible that we’re up 21-7 against Baylor if we score in the redzone. When I got to college our head coach always used to say that the game was going to come down to three or four plays. Those three or four plays were going to be the difference between a win and a loss. So after watching film on these teams, and boiling it all down do I think that Oklahoma State will be able to run the ball on us? Yes.
Do I think that we’ll be able to run the ball on them? Again, Yes. What this game is going to come down to is who can control the run game of the other team the most. Okie lite is going to come out in those big sets we’ve had trouble against, and I bet we see a lot of qb run game. The big sets gave us issues against Notre Dame and Texas while the QB run game hurt us against Baylor. Who is able to run the ball when they need to will be huge. Also who is able to secure the ball will also be paramount. In the one game that Oklahoma State lost, they turned the ball over three times. In our two losses to Texas and Baylor, we turned it over twice in both games. What may be missed is that Oklahoma State had some big returns against Baylor on special teams. So what does all of this mean?
In my opinion, I don’t think there’s too much of an advantage for either team on either side to say it’s going to go this way or that way. What it’s going to come down to is turnovers, special teams plays, limiting big plays for the other guys and when we’re inside the twenty, we have to score touchdowns. If we don’t turn the ball over, I think we can expose them defensively. They’re used to playing with a lead, so teams aren’t able to run it late in the fourth quarter on them when they’re tired because they’re playing catch up. So when I say expose them, I’m not saying that there are glaring weaknesses, I’m just saying that I don’t think they’ve been challenged like we can challenge them late in the game. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll do well this weekend. Defensively we need to take one or the other away. Either take away their run game, or take away their pass game if they don’t have one, they don’t do well with just the other. Hopefully Coach Norvell’s enthusiasm for the power run game will stick on Saturday. We need to stick to the formula that works…twice as many runs as passes, and above all else hang onto the football.
12 Comments
Thanks JY, going to be real interesting to see how it all plays out Saturday. I can easily see us handling the line of scrimmage again like at KSU, but my paranoid side still has glimpses of Stillwater 2 years ago and our blowout losses this year. Sometimes we get hit in the mouth early and just fold up shop for the next game. I’ll be sitting out in the freezing cold this weekend, so I’ll be twice as pissed if I have to watch us get our teeth kicked in.
I’m with you on the paranoia, and by the way it’s great to see you over here man! Trevor seems to be a lot more in control than Landry was, and hasn’t had the head scratching moments yet. I hope we never see any from him, but you never now. In the past we’ve gotten hit in the mouth and folded because we couldn’t run the ball. When they would cheat the safeties outside and stop that bubble game and swing pass stuff, we had no answer because we couldn’t run it. Now it’s a different story. Try to stay warm man! I’ll be right here in my living room yelling at the TV. Boomer!
IMO you hit the nail on the head with this last post. Great analysis of the game also.
I really don’t see 2011 happening this year. Our D gives me the biggest concern with all the injuries, how I would love to see Phillips in this game. I also think they’ll pick on Colvin early, to see how bad he’s injured. You might think they’d do that to Sanchez 1st, but I think Gundy would prefer to take out our general in secondary & hope others get complacent and lose passion…then go for jugular. This could be running to his side as well more often to make him be physical in run support, then push one over the top. The start of game is most critical. Neither team wants bad start, neither team can afford to play catch up and start forcing passes. Hope TK takes his chill pill before hand and keeps calm and focussed. I think he will.
If it ends up being “Ice Bowl II” like some are predicting, this should very well come down to who can run the ball the best. Footing, hanging on to the ball and just winning up front will determine the winner.
Unlike stupid Pat Jones, I am discounting the home crowd advantage as being that big of a deal. For one, OU doesn’t get intimidated by the paddles. Secondly, Knight doesn’t seem like the kind of guy that really get rattled by anything, so I believe he’ll play very well. And Clay, well, he’ll be Clay. Dependable and trustworthy with the football.
Not sure if OSU’s stud CB is playing, though. That could be a HUGE factor on Saturday.
Hadn’t heard anything about OSU CB, that is interesting.
Justin Gilbert. Missed the Baylor game….Think he may have a bum shoulder, too, like Colvin. Can’t remember his exact injury, but not sure if he’s playing Saturday. He’s a very, very good corner.
We burnt Gilbert quite a bit last year, but then again that was with Landry/ Brown and Stills. He is really good, so getting our run game established early will be critical
On an related note, the Big 12 is ridiculous at CB this year, between Jason Verrett, Gilbert and Colvin- some of the best corners in CFB today
Excellent post, JY. I agree with you. Personally, I think we’ll win. Turnovers and special teams, like you said. But it looks to me that TK has opened the O way up. He still has people holding the first two games against him, but if he had thrown in those two games the way he has the last couple of games, people would be saying he’s a very good thrower. Anyway. But he moves the O. I went back to the first game, threw out the 1stQ (admittedly bad, but according to all the coaches the OL finally got things figured out, too, so it wasn’t just TK, although he was off), and in the 2nd/3rdQs he led OU to 6 scores in 7 possessions (I still don’t think the “interception” to Metyer was an interception). Look at the very few times in the last two games he has not led the team to a score: punting on the opponents 37! and at other times inside opponents territory. If you are going to punt, that’s pretty good place to be punting. And, in some cases penalties that had nothing to do with him put them in a hole (1st and 25 or so is hard to overcome). In other words, this kid is directing drives for scores a good number of possessions, and the very few times he doesn’t, still we are punting in a good place to punt. (Switzer–field position.) He’s pretty impressive. There is a reason the run game has all of a sudden opened up–TK. They can’t crowd the LOS b/c he himself c/take it all the way from anywhere on the field. Plus, he throws the ball down the field. When he is directing scores it sure makes our D look much better when they are on the sidelines, resting, n/being scored upon, making their D statistics look pretty. I think OSU is experienced, but n/as talented as OU. Anyway, I think OU’s going to win. B/f TK I wasn’t very sure at all. How is Colvin?
Colvin’s a warrior and will play. I agree that Trevor is the spark to the fire. He just makes things happen. This whole chicken little feeling that a lot of people have that Oklahoma State is just going to roll their helmets out onto the field and chalk up another W is completely unfounded. It’s gonna be a dog fight all the way through it. Great post man!
Any word on if Peterson will play yet??
facts are facts ou won good or bad in 06-07-08-09-010-012