How Confident are you for this Weekend’s Game Against K. State? (Updated with R. Broyles’ Thoughts)
Posted on: November 22, 2013
Image from US PRESSWIRE (Photographer: Matthew Emmons)
We’re curious to hear y’alls expectations/predictions are for this game. Here a few general thoughts from us. There may be some overlap, contradictions and randomness because this is a combination of all of our thoughts just thrown down in no order:
UPDATED with Ryan Broyles (RB) thoughts:
– RB: So much of football is about energy and momentum. Despite what people might think players like to play in a hostile environment. In fact I’d say 9 out of 10 of us want to play in a place that has a ton of energy even if the crowd is rooting against you. When I played in Manhattan I don’t recall actually feeling like there was an intense amount of energy. Some atmospheres you walk into and you can just feel the emotions of the crowd and the stadium as a whole, but K. State never stood out like that to me. Maybe that’s changed. If the atmosphere in the stadium is intense then I think OU is actually going to feed off of it and it will help. If there isn’t much energy then our players are going to have to bring their own. Great atmospheres heighten your senses and help you play with an edge. So if it’s there then great. If not, better find it.
– RB: OU has some momentum. Coach Bill Snyder is a great coach and he’ll get maximum effort out of his guys. But OU’s offense might have found some momentum from last week and the special teams played great as well. The defense continues to get better and play outstanding football despite the injuries, so I feel like the momentum leads OU to a victory here. I see OU pulling away later in the game.
– SK: KSU seems to play very soft quarters coverage against 4 WR sets which leaves curl routes, hitches, flats, etc. open. Coach Snyder likes to play it safe but I wonder if they’ll try to be a little more aggressive in their coverage. If so, would be nice to see us beat them deep once or twice. Though it would be nicer to see us not in many 4 WR sets.
– SK: As bad as we’ve seemed in rush defense (OU is ranked 32nd at 143.6 yds/gm) K. State isn’t statistically much better (ranked 29th at 137.2 yds/gm). If our defense had to go against our offense we would probably be one the best rushing offenses that we’ve seen. In fact considering how poorly we throw the ball we might very well be the best rushing offense of all the teams we’ve played. Which means we’d probably be able to run effectively against our own defense and I hope that means we’ll be able to run effectively against K. States defense.
– JY: Historically, Bill Snyder coach teams have played a soft zone. They’ll give you those short throws, all the while banking on you to make mistakes as you go down the field. They’ll mix in blitzes here and there as well. I don’t think they have the horses in the back end to cover us straight up IF we had a qb who has shown they can continually make defenses pay. While we have talented qb’s, we don’t have that guy yet. Not saying they can’t be, but so far we haven’t seen it.
– JY: Special teams in my opinion may be the difference in the game. Containing that 9th generation Lockett kid will be big as well as hoping we can get Jalen out on some punt returns, and Roy needs to have a big game in the kick returns (hopefully we won’t have too many of those).
– JY: While I know that we have the personnel at every position offensively to win this football game, I don’t always trust the strategy or the tactics on offense. Since I live in Kansas City, I’m going to Manhattan with five Wildcat fans, so I’m already prepared for a rash of crap. Being realistic here, our coaches need to have their best game of the year.
– ACE: The best coaches know what a team does well and they try to take it away. In this game the run game is Oklahoma’s strength and it’s Kansas State’s strength. So it would behoove both coaches to try to take that away.
– ACE: Coach Patterson at TCU used Verrett the same way I think Coach Stoops should use Colvin. Man him up and let K. State try wasting a down throwing to that side of the field.
– ACE: K. State struggles against line stunts. They seem to have issues communicating up front. In fact their protection is sometimes so bad that on obvious passing downs they’ll go max protect and leave two RBs in. Last week you saw Mike find ways to isolate Striker on Iowa State’s RB. This week you’ll see him try to find any way to isolate Striker on either tackle or the RB. Bottom line is I think OU can get pressure.
– ACE: The most successful package that Kansas State has is their Wildcat package. Daniel Sams is an excellent open field runner and he is able get to full speed in literally two steps. He has above average vision and is not afraid to cut it back and waaaay back at that. So Stoops will be preaching discipline and gap sound defense. A guy that talented in the run can spark a touchdown at any moment. Against Texas and TCU, especially in the first half, he was able to have his way. I believe KSU will come out with Daniel Sams early and try to design some cut back lanes for Sams. Young linebackers are notorious for over running their read keys and Sams has such good vision KSU can implement ways to design these cut backs. Counter this though with lots of man. I want Sams to throw, we just have to be careful if we run the Tampa zone scheme of getting out too quickly and allowing Sams one-on-one with a linebacker.
– ACE: KSU likes to run more of a man blocking scheme and they are some good ol fashion farm boys who excel at run blocking. They are slightly above average at getting to the second level but they do a great job of locking on and driving the defense. Stoops knows he has better athletes but he also knows what happened against Texas. KSU does have a similar offensive line to Texas and will want to maul you at the point of attack. Jerry Montgomery will be preaching leverage leverage leverage to his players and getting space and not letting those big linemen get inside them and drive them back.
– YOST: OU has some momentum coming in to the KSU game offensively. They haven’t had much of that all season. Coming off a 400+ rushing week (most ever by a Bob Stoops team) means one thing and one thing only, run the ball.
– YOST: QB play is big but without any run game it doesn’t mean much. Coach Heupel needs to have a better start calling the game than last week vs Iowa State if he wants to have a chance win on the road.
– YOST: Defense has been this teams strength even with the injuries. They need to come out and hit KSU in the mouth and let them know the run game isn’t gonna be there. Heck, I’ll give a prediction here. I say OU wins by at least 10 points.
SOME STAT COMPARISONS:
Total Defense rank: OU 11th vs. KSU 36th
Rush Defense rank: OU 32nd vs. KSU 29th
Scoring Defense rank: OU 19th vs. KSU 34th
HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU THAT OU WINS ON SATURDAY?
How are y’all feeling? Confident? Not confident? Do tell.
21 Comments
K-State is playing better and better throughout the season. If they play disciplined football and stop the run the Sooners will have to make throws. That concerns me. I have not seen it enough to say confidently that OU will win. One thing that I take comfort in is this Sooner team has shown an ability to grind it out and come away with victories.
Can’t argue with that. The thing that gives me a little confidence is that TK is quicker to take off than Bell and it was the 4 WR sets that really concerned me with Bell. Out of that personnel grouping TK could grab yards running in space. As long as he doesn’t force anything I think we can pick up yards in various personnel groupings with TK.
I think we have a great chance, But that also depends on our OC. We need to start scoring in the first quarter.
Agree
Never been happier to have been pleasantly surprised.
TK’s throwing ability has improved dramatically. Even the pick wasn’t a bad read. Very impressed and grinning ear to ear.
Indeed. Now lets go smash the fighting pickens!
I think TK is on the verge of breaking out,and becoming the player the coaches thought he would be. Tomorrow starts our resurgence back to becoming a player on the national stage for next year. GO SOONERS.
Man I love the optimism!
A few of my thoughts that leave me pretty confident about tomorrow.
Overall – while I haven’t seen a ton of K State this year, they have definitely been better lately than the beginning of the season. However, their schedule has also been considerably easier during their winning streak.
Offense – I know we’ve only seen it for one half against a cellar B12 team, Knight seemed much better than the first 2.5 games. Heupel also seemed to right the ship somewhat the 2H last week. If they both continue on the same track tomorrow, there shouldn’t be more than a handful of teams in the country that I feel can slow OU to under 21 pts or so.
Defense – I feel like Mike, and the D as a whole, are a lot more comfortable the last week or two after the key injuries. The replacements and young guys seem to be grasping the scheme much better. This allows for Mike to be more aggressive and creative. If he’s aggressive and creative tomorrow, I think the D has the horses to hold K State to under 20 pts, if not closer to 10.
Score – 28-13 OU. I hope my crimson glasses are beginning to tell the truth!
I hope so too. That would be a sound defeat!
This is a tough one.. Being a OU fan in Topeka, KS, I have seen confidence and humility from the KSU Fans where I usually see all confidence.. I will say that if Zimmerman is out that is a big blow for KSU.. However the question is.. can we exploit that? With our passing game, I am not sure we will.. however he is also a guy that comes up and helps in the run game so again i think this works in favor of the OU Offense.. Our Strength is the Run game.. So What we need to do is Pound the Ground and I think we will have some luck with that. If Trevor is 55% or better with his pass attempts I think we win this game.. If he is off and we miss on some key 3rd downs.. we may be in trouble.. 60% chance OU comes out on top.
I’m hoping we’ll do what we did against TCU and run the ball 70% or more.
The soft zones K-State likes to play on defense has the opportunity to play right into Knight’s hands. IFF Trevor can get the ball to his receivers on time and somewhat accurately, I like Shepard and Saunders chances in the open field. I also expect to see Knight going down field a few times to keep K-State honest, and I think our wide outs are fast enough to break free. Baylor burned the Cats pretty easily on a few plays, so perhaps Heupel can borrow from their playbook. I know OUr QB is no Petty, but I have enough trust in him to make a key big connection or two on some long routes.
I do not expect early success running the ball, but I hope Heupel keeps the faith, because if they keep chipping away, I like OUr athletes wearing down K-States in the second half. The problem is I have no idea if Heupel will come out trying to throw, or will decide after a couple of three and outs, he should just try and air it out. If that happens, then we’re screwed.
Let Trevor manage the game and get in a groove. K-State knows what OU currently does best, so there’s no use trying to fool the Silver Fox….It doesn’t work.
Yeah Baylor burned K. State on a lot of busts because K. State runs so much zone. Oddly we got burned on a zone cover 2 as well. But Baylor is willing to attack people deep and they got a couple wideeee open TDs. And totally agree, on the run game…got to stick with it. But as I said below I’m a lot more optimistic having TK running even if it’s out of 4 wr sets because he’s quicker to pull it down and go and he’s obviously more elusive in space.
Absolutely agree. Knight just seems sharper and much quicker to react. Not saying Bell is a dummy, but he’s definitely struggling big time with his confidence. The offensive line seems to spring to life when Knight’s in there, too.
Watching Baylor do, seemingly, the same play over and over against OU was frustrating. They were picking our DBs, but I would have thought at some point Stoops would have made an adjustment to that. My thoughts? OU’s defense just got tired and kind of gave up. Not really their fault, though. The offense gave them NO help whatsoever.
I wanted to ask you. How hard would it be to create a mobile pocket for Knight?
Concerns:
Knight barely threw for 50% last week in his “breakout.” If that continues then we will not win this game.
Heupel I don’t believe will rely on the run game. The minute it isn’t working he will go pass happy. Especially since I think Snyder will invite him to do so to his favorite routes of curls and outs.
Young team. Lots of youngsters and cold weather. Sometimes I think Snyder’s goal is to to just piss you off by holding the ball as long he can. If they play ball control and field position then I am afraid our young guys will press and get frustrated.
Weather, as dumb as that sounds if you read twitter our Cali kids and southern kids are not real enthused by the weather. Can they get their minds right?
Snyder vs. Heupel is a total mismatch.
K State is getting better every week.
Hope:
We can run the ball. Especially when we don’t give up. It has seemed when we stick to run the 2nd half it really starts to open up for us.
The Spark of Knight…..or Thompson. Both of those guys played well last week. I can’t believe I am saying it but I hope they pay them both. I thought Thompson looked really confident and in control would love to see against starters.
Bob and Mike never want to lose to Snyder, and like it when the Stoops brothers have something to play for.
Unfortunately I pick us to lose 21-17. But Sooners fight hard and I think we truly find out QB of future this week.
Good points. While I’m sorry Damien has to be out I think more Finch against K. State players could be just the thing to get the run game going early. I sure hope you’re wrong about the score 🙂
We still have depth there too with Ross and David Smith, who had a really good camp. We’ll lean on the seniors Clay and Finch, but I’d expect to see those two guys as well.
Just want to add, because this ‘barely 50%’ thing keeps getting perpetuated, but last week he was 8/14. That is over 57%. Also 1-drop would have put it at 64%. Just want to be fair. Is it great? No. But let’s not make it look worse than it was either
If Kstate goes all out against the run then TK or any of the running backs will have long gains if they get past the first level just like last week. I’ve seen it time and time again.. Look back when AD was here, the other team would load the box and AD would get a block and go 80 untouched…be nice to see another 28 w a big gain against the Kats
If we get under center in the I like we did on a couple of plays in the fourth, and against Baylor, I’d be confident we could run on em. We can line up and mash people when we want to.