The Football Brainiacs

Image via Brownsville Herald

Not particularly.

That isn’t meant to belittle the competition and I certainly recognize that a team like TCU is capable of having some success against OU. If enough right things happen for them and enough wrong things happen for OU, then they could win. But the chances of that, in my estimation, aren’t quite good enough to warrant major concern. Here is my rationale:

TCU’s OFFENSE

For the most part, TCU appears to be the same team as it was last year in terms of it’s strengths and weaknesses. They are doing some different things schematically and with respect to the personnel groupings, but they still seem to have some of the same issues I recall from last year’s team.

– Run Game: While TCU may want to be a more physical team and seeing more double tight sets could be indicative of that desire, they aren’t there yet. They continue to be somewhat weak in the interior part of their offensive line and it’s hard for me to imagine them having much success running between the tackles. Where they do have some success is getting their speedy backs outside the tackles. Problem is…OU’s defense is fast from sideline to sideline.

– Run Game: Following up on the point above, Trevone Boykin is obviously a great runner. He is a master at capitalizing on any open lanes created by over-pursuing undisciplined defensive lineman. I fully expect to see him flying in the open field on more than one occasion against OU this weekend. But will it be enough? I don’t believe so.

– Pass Game: There has been talk of Boykin’s progression as a passer from last year to this year. Personally, I don’t see a significant step forward. He still seems to lack touch on his deep throws, though he will almost invariably cash in on an impossible throw here and there. The routes he’ll need to be sharp on against OU are his stops, short outs, and slants. OU plays a lot of shuffle technique on the outside, so these routes are more likely to have some success if a QB is consistent, accurate, and times his throws. Unfortunately for TCU, Boykin isn’t any of those things. Again, he’s capable of getting hot but I don’t see a QB with the passing skill set to consistently take what the defense gives him.

TCU’s DEFENSE

Under Gary Patterson, defense is synonymous with TCU. They’ve been good on that side of the ball for a long time, which has made it easy to borrow money. As most of you know, TCU structures their front and the two sides of their back end in a way that allows each of these respective parts of the defense to function independently. That tends to be the focus of most discussion surrounding TCU’s defense. The ability of each section of the defense to make an independent call allows the defense to operate with more complexity within a very teachable structure. But to me it’s the second part of the previous sentence that really speaks to the strength of their defense. The first part is more about how TCU gets where everyone else gets. In other words, other teams have split coverage calls and variations in what they do up front. But TCU teaches it in a way that allows their young players to absorb it quickly and get as many meaningful reps as possible.

– Leverage: Through repetition athletes understand leverage or position on their opponent. TCU’s defenders are really good at maintaining good leverage on the ball throughout the game. Oddly enough it was a moment of leverage weakness that sealed TCU’s fate against OU last year. If I recall correctly, the safety took a poor angle and the ‘Clay Maker’ housed it.

– Outside Coverage: TCU has great speed on the edges at the outside cornerback position, and they play with good technique. Unlike OU, for example, they are more willing to play their corners in a technique that keeps them closed and square throughout the route progression. And they have the athletes that can open up and run with anyone.

– Interior Run Defense and Interior Coverage: Chucky Hunter and Davion Pierson (former Millwood DL) do a great job against the inside run game. They are both big, strong, physical guys that can move well enough to stunt and create some (though limited) pressure in the pass game. For the most part these guys have protected the guys behind them and allowed TCU to give their LBs more coverage responsibilities. This has limited the underneath passing game for opponents and also kept their safeties as true over the top defenders instead of putting them in one-on-one match-ups. I’m not convinced they have great interior pass defense from the safety position, but I’m also not certain OU has the Jalin Saunders-type receiver to test them.

CONCLUSION

In the past couple years, TCU has played Oklahoma very close. So some of you may be thinking “if TCU is the same team as they were the last couple years, then why all the confidence?” Mainly because OU isn’t the same team. Defensively OU is better where it matters, up front. The secondary isn’t elite at this point, but I’m not sure I see the passing threat from TCU to expose any weaknesses. Offensively, OU is better in the run game and that’s really the key to this game for me.

If OU can, and I believe they will, run the ball well enough to force TCU’s LBs commit to the run game early, there should be more space than we are accustomed to seeing against TCU. In the past, TCU has really done a good job defending OU’s run with their front. My prediction is they are going to have a lot more trouble defending it this year.

Two OU Players I’ll be Watching: Samaje Perine and KJ Young. TCU wants to defend the slot with underneath coverage, but I think Samaje and the OL will create more space for Young.