The Football Brainiacs

Image via Associated Press

Every year Sooner fans start the season with hopes that Oklahoma will make it to the national championship. I wouldn’t have it any other way. Sooner fans have high expectations because they belong to a tradition that is perhaps the richest in the union. With those expectations though, comes that painful fall when expectations aren’t met.

After the loss to TCU, some fans were hopeful OU could regroup, win out, and maybe still find themselves in the playoffs. No surprise to any of y’all, I was in that group. Meanwhile, others thought “it’s over.” After this second loss, the numbers in that first group…that oh so optimistic group…plummeted. But I for one, am still holding out hope.

It’s not huge hope. But it’s more like…fun hope. I will admit, I love the game of football. And I love watching the Sooners play, so I enjoy the season regardless of whether OU wins or loses. So maybe for that reason it’s easier for me to hope without the fear of being devastated by another loss. If OU loses again I’ll have lost any hope of a playoff spot, but I’ll still have fun watching college football and my Sooners.

So before you all blast me for being the sunshine pumping, kool-aid drinking, unicorn riding, rainbow chaser…here me out.

Put aside your feelings about how good the Sooners are or are not. Or how good they can or can’t be. We’ll discuss that in another post. I’m strictly saying that IF the Sooners can win out, and perhaps even win out impressively, is there a chance they backdoor their way into the playoff?

The BCS era is over.

If you haven’t look at it yet, take a look at the college football playoff selection committee protocol: HERE.

The simply reality is we don’t know how the selection committee is going to go about weighing the various factors. For example, something I found interesting written in the protocol that was never overtly dealt with during the BCS era was the following:

That the committee will consider, among other things, “Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season, or likely will affect its postseason performance.”

The Sooners haven’t had any major injuries, but that isn’t really my point. My point is I don’t think we can just assume that whatever the AP poll or the Coaches poll says right now, or even at the end of the season, will be the de facto final four. The committee is going to determine their final four, and I’m sure the individual members will do a detailed analysis and weigh factors as each deems fit.

ESPN would have everyone believe that two SEC teams will get in, because they believe two SEC teams should get in (and have a vested financial interest in that happening). And if that’s the case then, yes, that leaves the chances of the Sooners getting in next to impossible. But that same network told everyone that Michigan State was out after they got beat by Oregon, because the Big 10 is so weak and yet the Spartans appear to be right back in the hunt. ESPN doesn’t know…I don’t know…and you don’t know. And we certainly don’t know how the remainder of the season will play out.

All we know is what the committee organizers have published about how they will go about selecting a team, and even there we don’t know how much each individual will weigh the various factors.

Favoring a Conference Champion

My guess however is that, in the first go round, the committee isn’t going to want to put two teams from a single conference in the playoffs. In fact, the website states:

“The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.”

I found the quote above particularly interesting because it’s clear from the words I’ve highlighted that the committee’s default position is that conference champions should be favored. And only in circumstances where a team that has not won a conference championship is UNEQUIVOCALLY one of the four best teams in the country should they be allowed in. In other words, it sounds like the burden of proof is quite high for a team that hasn’t won their conference and I don’t reckon ESPN’s love affair with the SEC is going to weigh as heavily on the selection committee as they might hope. After all, the committee is comprised of people from different conferences.

Keep in mind also that the selection committee isn’t just filling out a ballot last minute and handing it in. They are presumably looking at this whole thing with a careful eye. And when you look at the Sooners with a careful eye, you see two losses to two very good teams. One was a close road loss that could have easily gone the other way to a team that destroyed the current Big 10 West leader. The other loss was at home, but clearly should have gone the other way. There aren’t any devastating blows that make the Sooners toxic or their entry into the playoff completely unjustifiable assuming, of course, they find a way to win the Big 12.

But that’s the key, as I see it…winning the Big 12. I don’t know if that will be enough but I do believe it gives OU a reasonable argument to backdoor their way into the playoff. Obviously, the Sooners don’t hold the keys to their own fate when it comes to winning the Big 12. But we all know this conference well enough to know that it’s still anybodies to win. And with Baylor already having lost (by a fairly significant margin) and OU having beat the team that beat them (also by a fairly significant margin), the Sooners still having a chance to take down Baylor is a good thing. But OU needs to look good doing it.

One of my favorite scenes, in one of my favorite movies, the Goonies, is when Andy is playing the bone piano and as she mis-plays the notes. The ground collapses around them, but if she plays the final note (a B-flat) correctly they’ll go free. And if she plays it incorrectly, “we’ll all be flat.”

I don’t know if it’s too late for the Sooners, but I know there is a lot of football to be played. And it’s being played in a time when we have a new playoff structure and committee that no one can say for certain how they will determine who makes it in. You may be one of those people with the pitch forks out that wants to go after the coaches, or the players, or even folks like myself who still hold out hope for the Sooners and that’s fine. You probably stopped reading this long ago. But I for one still believe this is good team and believe there is enough unknown to hope. It may be a small amount of hope, but not one person here can honestly say they believed the Sooners would be in the Sugar Bowl, much less win it, after the loss in Waco last year.

My message to the Sooners, just keep playing and make sure you hit the right note from here on out. My message to the fans…enjoy the season regardless! Football is a great sport and it gives us great memories and wonderful times to spend time to spend with friends and families.